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Stadium Background

Sao Paulo W vs Bahia W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Brasil Women Estadio do Caninde, Sao Paulo
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Sena Taty
53' Event
Cassia
55'
Robinha

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Sao Paulo W
20%
Draws
45%
Bahia W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bahia W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Paulo W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Bahia W taking it.
  • Sao Paulo W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bahia W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Sao Paulo W Clean Sheet 10%
Bahia W Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo W Bahia W
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 22 17
Draws 4 7
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 1.56 2.46
Goals Conceded 0.69 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 21, 2026 Copa do Brasil Women
Sao Paulo W vs Bahia W
0:1
Oct 16, 2026 Copa do Brasil Women
Bahia W vs Sao Paulo W
2:1
Feb 24, 2026 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Bahia W
2:1
May 18, 2025 Brasileiro Women
Bahia W vs Sao Paulo W
1:2
Feb 25, 2023 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Bahia W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Paulo W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Bahia W Compare

Top Goalscorer Cassia
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo W 10 / 100
Bahia W 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo W Bahia W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahia W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Paulo W scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Bahia W has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Sao Paulo W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Paulo W VS Bahia W
1.25 Goals Scored 3.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Paulo W

(Home)
16 Oct
Bahia W
2 : 1
Sao Paulo W
03 Oct
Sao Paulo W
1 : 1
Corinthians W
26 Sept
Corinthians W
1 : 2
Sao Paulo W
19 Sept
Sao Paulo W
1 : 0
CR Flamengo W
12 Sept
CR Flamengo W
1 : 3
Sao Paulo W
Page 1 of 7

Bahia W

(Away)
16 Oct
Bahia W
2 : 1
Sao Paulo W
10 Oct
Bahia W
5 : 0
Jacuipense W
07 Oct
Bahia W
2 : 2
Jacobina W
03 Oct
Barcelona FC W
1 : 11
Bahia W
30 Sept
Bahia W
3 : 0
Porto-BA W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
Fluminense W -
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Minas Brasilia W -
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Vila Nova FC W -
Cruzeiro W -
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Penarol W -
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Alagoinhas W -
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Doce Mel W -
Perolas Negras W -
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Pantanal W 1
Sao Joao PI W 2
Ipojuca W -
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Remo W -
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CR Flamengo W -
Taubate W -
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3B da Amazonia W -
Mixto W -
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Acao W -
Botafogo RJ W -
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EC Juventude W -
Guarani de Paripueira W -
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Sao Jose W -
Prosperidade W -
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Brasil de Farroupilha W -
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Bragantino W -
Ferroviaria W -
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UD Alagoana W -
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Paraiso EC W -
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Ypiranga AP W -
Palmeiras W -
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Corinthians W -
Atletico-MG W -
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Cresspom W -
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Juventude W -
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Vitoria W -
Galvez W -
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Uniao RN W -
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Atletico-PI W -
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Santos W -
Sampaio Correa W 3
Portuguesa AP W 2
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Várzea Grande EC W -
Sao Raimundo RR W -
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Heips W -
Coritiba W -
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Mixto PB W -
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Atletico Rio Negro (Roraima) W -
Internacional W -
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Gremio W -
Vasco W -
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Araguari W -
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Itapuense W -
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America Mineiro W -
Rolim de Moura W -
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Mauaense W -
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Itacoatiara W -
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Sao Paulo W -
Realidade Jovem W -
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Itabirito W -
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Ceara W -
Sport Recife W -
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Criciuma W -
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R4 EC W -
Tiradentes PA W -
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Planalto EC W -
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Paysandu PA W -
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Bahia W -
1/64-finals
Fluminense W -
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Minas Brasilia W -
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Vila Nova FC W -
Cruzeiro W -
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Penarol W -
Alagoinhas W -
TBD -
Doce Mel W -
Perolas Negras W 1
Sao Joao PI W 2
Ipojuca W 2
Remo W 1
TBD -
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CR Flamengo W -
Taubate W -
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3B da Amazonia W -
Mixto W -
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Acao W -
Botafogo RJ W -
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EC Juventude W -
Guarani de Paripueira W 3
Sao Jose W 4
Prosperidade W 1
Brasil de Farroupilha W 0
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Bragantino W -
Ferroviaria W -
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UD Alagoana W -
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Paraiso EC W 1
Ypiranga AP W 2
Palmeiras W -
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Corinthians W -
Atletico-MG W -
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Cresspom W 0
Juventude W 1
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Vitoria W -
Galvez W 1
Uniao RN W 5
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Atletico-PI W -
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Santos W -
Sampaio Correa W 2
Várzea Grande EC W 1
Sao Raimundo RR W 0
Heips W 1
Coritiba W 1
Mixto PB W 0
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Atletico Rio Negro (Roraima) W -
Internacional W -
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Gremio W -
Vasco W -
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Araguari W 5
Itapuense W 2
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America Mineiro W -
Rolim de Moura W 1
Mauaense W 2
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Itacoatiara W -
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Sao Paulo W -
Realidade Jovem W 1
Itabirito W 2
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Ceara W -
Sport Recife W -
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Criciuma W 1
R4 EC W 0
Tiradentes PA W 2
Planalto EC W 4
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Paysandu PA W -
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Bahia W -
1/32-finals
Fluminense W -
TBD -
Minas Brasilia W 1
Vila Nova FC W 0
Cruzeiro W -
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Penarol W 1
Doce Mel W 2
Sao Joao PI W 7
Ipojuca W 0
TBD -
CR Flamengo W -
Taubate W 0
3B da Amazonia W 1
Mixto W 0
Acao W 1
Botafogo RJ W -
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EC Juventude W -
Sao Jose W 2
Prosperidade W 1
TBD -
Bragantino W -
Ferroviaria W -
TBD -
UD Alagoana W 4
Ypiranga AP W 1
Palmeiras W -
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Corinthians W -
Atletico-MG W -
TBD -
Juventude W 2
Vitoria W 3
Uniao RN W 0
Atletico-PI W 1
TBD -
Santos W -
Sampaio Correa W 2
Heips W 3
Coritiba W 3
Atletico Rio Negro (Roraima) W 1
Internacional W -
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Gremio W -
Vasco W 5
Araguari W 1
TBD -
America Mineiro W -
Mauaense W 3
Itacoatiara W 0
TBD -
Sao Paulo W -
Itabirito W 2
Ceara W 0
Sport Recife W 3
Criciuma W 0
Planalto EC W 2
Paysandu PA W 1
TBD -
Bahia W -
1/16-finals
Fluminense W 2
Minas Brasilia W 0
Cruzeiro W 5
Doce Mel W 0
Sao Joao PI W 0
CR Flamengo W 2
3B da Amazonia W 2
Acao W 0
Botafogo RJ W 3
EC Juventude W 0
Sao Jose W 1
Bragantino W 4
Ferroviaria W 8
UD Alagoana W 0
Palmeiras W 0
Corinthians W 1
Atletico-MG W 3
Vitoria W 1
Atletico-PI W 2
Santos W 1
Heips W 0
Coritiba W 2
Internacional W 1
Gremio W 0
Vasco W 1
America Mineiro W 0
Mauaense W 0
Sao Paulo W 3
Itabirito W 2
Sport Recife W 1
Planalto EC W 0
Bahia W 1
1/8-finals
Fluminense W 2
Cruzeiro W 1
CR Flamengo W 1
3B da Amazonia W 0
Botafogo RJ W 0
Bragantino W 2
Ferroviaria W 1
Corinthians W 0
Atletico-MG W 2
Atletico-PI W 1
Coritiba W 0
Internacional W 1
Vasco W 0
Sao Paulo W 1
Itabirito W 0
Bahia W 1
Quarter-finals
Fluminense W 2
CR Flamengo W 1
Bragantino W 4
Ferroviaria W 3
Atletico-MG W 1
Internacional W 2
Sao Paulo W 1
Bahia W 3
Semi-finals
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Final
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