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Sao Paulo W vs Gremio W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Brasileiro Women Estadio do Caninde, Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo W Logo

Sao Paulo W

2 - 0
FT
Gremio W Logo

Gremio W

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Pini
46'
Sub
Dani Barao In: Arrieta C.
Out: Dani Barao
55'
Sub
Braga A. In: Maria Dias
Out: Braga A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sao Paulo W
30%
Draws
27%
Gremio W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Paulo W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

27% / Low Confidence
  • Sao Paulo W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Gremio W a 27% chance of winning this.
  • Sao Paulo W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Paulo W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Sao Paulo W Clean Sheet 15%
Gremio W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo W Gremio W
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 21 15
Draws 4 6
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.62 1.67
Goals Conceded 0.62 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Gremio W
2:0
Aug 29, 2026 Brasileiro Women
Gremio W vs Sao Paulo W
0:0
Apr 20, 2026 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Gremio W
3:1
Apr 19, 2025 Brasileiro Women
Gremio W vs Sao Paulo W
1:2
Aug 29, 2024 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Gremio W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Paulo W Compare

Top Goalscorer Crivelari
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vi Amaral
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Gremio W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo W 11 / 100
Gremio W 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo W Gremio W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Sao Paulo W remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Sao Paulo W found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Gremio W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Paulo W VS Gremio W
1.63 Goals Scored 2.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Paulo W

(Home)
03 Oct
Sao Paulo W
1 : 1
Corinthians W
26 Sept
Corinthians W
1 : 2
Sao Paulo W
19 Sept
Sao Paulo W
1 : 0
CR Flamengo W
12 Sept
CR Flamengo W
1 : 3
Sao Paulo W
05 Sept
Sao Paulo W
2 : 0
Gremio W
Page 1 of 6

Gremio W

(Away)
03 Oct
Gremio W
0 : 0
Internacional W
27 Sept
Gremio W
13 : 0
Forquetense W
20 Sept
Brasil de Farroupilha W
0 : 3
Gremio W
05 Sept
Sao Paulo W
2 : 0
Gremio W
29 Aug
Gremio W
0 : 0
Sao Paulo W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sao Paulo W 2
Gremio W 0
Ferroviaria W 2
CR Flamengo W 3
Corinthians W 4
Cruzeiro W 1
Palmeiras W 2
Bahia W 3
Semi-finals
Sao Paulo W 4
CR Flamengo W 1
Corinthians W 2
Bahia W 0
Final
Sao Paulo W 3
Corinthians W 2