Sport Picks
Sao Tome and Principe vs Malawi
World
World Championship 2026 Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse 
Match Events
23'
23'
Vava Pequeno
46'
46'
Sub
Lameck M. In: Chirwa G.
Out: Lameck M.
57'
57'
Sub
Cardoso R. In: Andrade Male S. A.
Out: Cardoso R.
AI Match Summary
Sao Tome and Principe in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Tome and Principe.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
4%
6%
90%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Malawi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Malawi lately — more wins on the board than Sao Tome and Principe.
- Win probability leans Malawi's way, sitting at 90%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Sao Tome and Principe Clean Sheet 11%
Malawi Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sao Tome and Principe | Malawi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 3 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 22 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.5 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.67 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.67 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 13, 2025 World Championship
Sao Tome and Principe vs Malawi
1:0
Jun 6, 2024 World Championship
Malawi vs Sao Tome and Principe
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sao Tome and Principe 10 / 100
Malawi 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sao Tome and Principe Malawi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Malawi let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.50 goals.
Malawi lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Sao Tome and Principe scored in 41% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sao Tome and Principe VS Malawi
0.5 Goals Scored 1
2.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
67% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sao Tome and Principe
(Home) 31 Mar
Ethiopia
1 : 0 Sao Tome and Principe
27 Mar
Sao Tome and Principe
0 : 3 Ethiopia
13 Oct
Sao Tome and Principe
1 : 0 Malawi
10 Oct
Sao Tome and Principe
0 : 6 Tunisia
09 Sept
Namibia
3 : 0 Sao Tome and Principe
Page 1 of 6
27 Mar
Sao Tome and Principe
0 : 3 Ethiopia
13 Oct
Sao Tome and Principe
1 : 0 Malawi
10 Oct
Sao Tome and Principe
0 : 6 Tunisia
04 Sept
Sao Tome and Principe
2 : 3 Equatorial Guinea
09 Jun
Sao Tome and Principe
0 : 1 Liberia
Page 1 of 3
Malawi
(Away) 09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1 Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0 Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0 Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0 Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1 Malawi
Page 1 of 6
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1 Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0 Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0 Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0 Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1 Malawi
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20:2 | 26 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 4 | Guinea Bissau | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 5 | Ethiopia | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 6 | Djibouti | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5:33 | 1 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Senegal | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 22:3 | 24 |
| 2 | D.R. Congo | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 22 |
| 3 | Sudan | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8:6 | 13 |
| 4 | Togo | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5:10 | 8 |
| 5 | Mauritania | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4:13 | 7 |
| 6 | South Sudan | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3:19 | 5 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15:9 | 18 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15:8 | 17 |
| 3 | Benin | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:12 | 12 |
| 5 | Rwanda | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5:9 | 11 |
| 6 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5:12 | 5 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cape Verde | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 23 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17:5 | 19 |
| 3 | Libya | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Angola | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 5 | Mauritius | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | 6 |
| 6 | Eswatini | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6:19 | 3 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22:2 | 24 |
| 2 | Niger | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11:10 | 15 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 4 | Zambia | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 5 | Congo | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:24 | 1 |
| 6 | Eritrea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 25:0 | 26 |
| 2 | Gabon | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22:9 | 25 |
| 3 | Gambia | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 27:18 | 13 |
| 4 | Kenya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 12 |
| 5 | Burundi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13:13 | 10 |
| 6 | Seychelles | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2:53 | 0 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 7)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 24:8 | 25 |
| 2 | Uganda | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 14:9 | 18 |
| 3 | Mozambique | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 14:17 | 18 |
| 4 | Guinea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:8 | 15 |
| 5 | Botswana | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12:16 | 10 |
| 6 | Somalia | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3:20 | 1 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 8)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 22:0 | 28 |
| 2 | Namibia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:10 | 15 |
| 3 | Liberia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 15 |
| 4 | Malawi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 5 | Equatorial Guinea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8:15 | 11 |
| 6 | Sao Tome and Principe | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5:26 | 3 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 9)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ghana | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23:6 | 25 |
| 2 | Madagascar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17:12 | 19 |
| 3 | Mali | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:6 | 18 |
| 4 | Comoros | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 12:13 | 15 |
| 5 | Central Africa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:24 | 8 |
| 6 | Chad | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5:24 | 1 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)