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Sao Tome and Principe vs South Sudan

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Leal L.
78' Event
Elly D.

AI Match Summary

Sao Tome and Principe host South Sudan in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Sao Tome and Principe at 0.5 goals for, 2.5 against; South Sudan at 0.38 for, 1.63 against. Past meetings favor Sao Tome and Principe slightly — 0-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 26, 2024, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.44, favoring South Sudan. South Sudan in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Sao Tome and Principe
11%
Draws
80%
South Sudan
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: South Sudan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • South Sudan has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Sao Tome and Principe.
  • Model forecasts a 80% win probability edge for South Sudan.
  • Cup tournament structure in Africa Cup of Nations 2025 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Sao Tome and Principe Clean Sheet 16%
South Sudan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Tome and Principe South Sudan
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 3 5
Draws 4 8
Losses 22 15
Goals Scored 0.5 0.38
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
South Sudan vs Sao Tome and Principe
0:0
Mar 22, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Sao Tome and Principe vs South Sudan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Tome and Principe Compare

Top Goalscorer Leal L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

South Sudan Compare

Top Goalscorer Elly D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Tome and Principe 11 / 100
South Sudan 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Tome and Principe South Sudan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SSU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Tome and Principe scored in 41% of their last 29 games.

South Sudan let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Sao Tome and Principe went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

South Sudan lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Tome and Principe VS South Sudan
0.5 Goals Scored 0.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Somalia2
Eswatini5
Sao Tome and Principe1
South Sudan1
Chad3
Mauritius1
Djibouti0
Liberia2