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Saprissa vs Herediano

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá, San José
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Sinclair O.
12' Event
Rodriguez T.
22' Event
Gonzalez J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Saprissa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Saprissa
15%
Draws
39%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saprissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Saprissa come out ahead of Herediano on wins alone.
  • Model gives Saprissa a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Saprissa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Saprissa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 68%
Herediano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saprissa Herediano
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 21 16
Draws 4 4
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 2.12 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.12 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:0
Jul 18, 2026 Recopa de Costa Rica
Herediano vs Saprissa
1:0
May 17, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Saprissa
2:0
May 14, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:1
Mar 8, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saprissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sinclair O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saprissa 86 / 100
Herediano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saprissa Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saprissa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saprissa's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Saprissa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Herediano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Saprissa VS Herediano
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Saprissa

(Home)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
17 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 2
Saprissa
13 Sept
Sporting FC
4 : 2
Saprissa
10 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 2
Cartagines
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
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Herediano

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Herediano 1
Cartagines 0
Saprissa 3
Liberia 1
Final
Herediano 3
Saprissa 2