Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Liga Profesional Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sarmiento Junin host River Plate in the Liga Profesional. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Sarmiento Junin at 1.11 goals for, 1.36 against; River Plate at 1.46 for, 0.97 against. Head-to-head, Sarmiento Junin have won 1 to River Plate's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 15, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.44, favoring River Plate. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sarmiento Junin
15%
Draws
48%
River Plate
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: River Plate

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • River Plate carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga Profesional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Sarmiento Junin Clean Sheet 16%
River Plate Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarmiento Junin River Plate
Matches Played 28 35
Wins 12 18
Draws 2 5
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.11 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.36 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Liga Profesional
River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin
2:0
Oct 12, 2025 Liga Profesional
River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin
0:1
Apr 5, 2025 Liga Profesional
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
1:1
Jul 28, 2024 Liga Profesional
River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin
1:0
Mar 20, 2023 Liga Profesional
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarmiento Junin 36 / 100
River Plate 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarmiento Junin River Plate

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick River Plate Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarmiento Junin scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

River Plate's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 35 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Solid form: Sarmiento Junin remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sarmiento Junin VS River Plate
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarmiento Junin

(Home)
19 Sept
Racing Club
3 : 1
Sarmiento Junin
13 Sept
Sarmiento Junin
1 : 1
CA Belgrano de Cordoba
04 Sept
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
0 : 2
Sarmiento Junin
28 Aug
Union de Santa Fe
4 : 1
Sarmiento Junin
23 Aug
Sarmiento Junin
2 : 0
Estudiantes L.P.
Page 1 of 6

River Plate

(Away)
19 Sept
River Plate
1 : 2
Huracan
12 Sept
Atl. Tucuman
1 : 2
River Plate
06 Sept
River Plate
3 : 1
Ind. Rivadavia
30 Aug
Banfield
2 : 3
River Plate
27 Aug
River Plate
1 : 2
Santa Fe
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Instituto 11 8 1 2 17:8 25
2 Velez Sarsfield 11 5 6 0 17:11 21
3 Defensa y Justicia 11 6 3 2 16:11 21
4 Boca Juniors 11 5 5 1 17:11 20
5 Lanus 11 5 2 4 13:9 17
6 Newells Old Boys 11 4 5 2 11:8 17
7 Gimnasia Mendoza 11 5 2 4 14:12 17
8 Independiente 11 5 2 4 11:12 17
9 Estudiantes L.P. 11 4 1 6 13:11 13
10 Union de Santa Fe 11 4 1 6 17:19 13
11 Deportivo Riestra 11 2 5 4 9:11 11
12 San Lorenzo 11 3 2 6 4:11 11
13 Platense 11 2 4 5 11:17 10
14 Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero) 11 2 3 6 8:14 9
15 Talleres Cordoba 11 2 2 7 11:18 8
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentinos Jrs 11 6 3 2 15:10 21
2 CA Belgrano de Cordoba 11 5 4 2 12:7 19
3 Rosario Central 11 5 4 2 12:9 19
4 Huracan 11 5 4 2 11:8 19
5 Ind. Rivadavia 11 5 3 3 15:14 18
6 Gimnasia L.P. 11 5 3 3 16:16 18
7 Sarmiento Junin 10 5 1 4 17:16 16
8 Barracas Central 11 4 3 4 8:9 15
9 River Plate 10 4 1 5 13:12 13
10 Atl. Tucuman 11 3 4 4 9:9 13
11 Tigre 11 3 3 5 10:11 12
12 Racing Club 11 3 2 6 13:17 11
13 Banfield 11 2 4 5 12:17 10
14 Aldosivi 11 2 2 7 12:17 8
15 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 11 1 3 7 6:15 6
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)