Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sarnese vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Marquez F.
55' Event
Maggio D.
60' Event
Maggio D.

AI Match Summary

Sarnese in this Serie D - Group G matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sarnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Sarnese
20%
Draws
23%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarnese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gelbison lately — more wins on the board than Sarnese.
  • Model gives Sarnese a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 68%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarnese Gelbison
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 15
Draws 12 8
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Sarnese vs Gelbison
3:1
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Gelbison vs Sarnese
3:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Sarnese vs Gelbison
0:1
Feb 3, 2019 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Gelbison
4:1
Oct 14, 2018 Serie D - Group H
Gelbison vs Sarnese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Maggio D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Marquez F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gelbison Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarnese 95 / 100
Gelbison 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarnese Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarnese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarnese scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Gelbison has conceded goals in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Sarnese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sarnese VS Gelbison
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarnese

(Home)
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0
Sarnese
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Gelbison

(Away)
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paganese 4 3 1 0 11:4 10
2 Sarnese 4 3 1 0 7:3 10
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 4 3 0 1 7:1 9
4 Monastir 4 3 0 1 10:6 9
5 Unipomezia 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
6 Albalonga 4 2 1 1 7:5 7
7 Ossese 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Trastevere Calcio 4 2 1 1 5:8 7
9 Afragolese 4 1 3 0 5:1 6
10 Aranova 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
11 Budoni Calcio 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
12 Anzio Calcio 1924 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
13 Gelbison 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Sarrabus Ogliastra 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
15 Citta di Anagni 4 1 0 3 3:10 3
16 Latte Dolce 4 0 1 3 5:10 1
17 Atl. Lodigiani 4 0 1 3 5:11 1
18 US Venafro 4 0 1 3 1:7 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)