Sport Picks
Match Events
19'
19'
Foggia C.
23'
23'
Isufi A.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Sarnese and Paganese finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paganese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Paganese come out ahead of Sarnese on wins alone.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Paganese taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 16%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarnese | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 12 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.66 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Paganese
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Sarnese
2:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Sarnese vs Paganese
1:0
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Sarnese
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sarnese Compare
Top Goalscorer Foggia C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Paganese Compare
Top Goalscorer Isufi A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarnese 28 / 100
Paganese 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarnese Paganese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Paganese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sarnese found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).
Historical meetings average 1.75 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Sarnese stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Paganese has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sarnese VS Paganese
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarnese
(Home) 20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1 Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0 Sarnese
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1 Pompei
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2 Francavilla
12 Apr
Sarnese
0 : 0 A.C.D. Nardo
Page 1 of 3
Paganese
(Away) 20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6 Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1 Unipomezia
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6 Paganese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2 Paganese
03 May
Citta di Fasano
6 : 0 Paganese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)
