Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group H

Virtus Francavilla

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sarnese play Virtus Francavilla in the Serie D - Group H. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sarnese averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. Virtus Francavilla averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Sarnese won 0, Virtus Francavilla won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Sarnese and 1.06 for Virtus Francavilla. This points to a Virtus Francavilla double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Sarnese

35%

Draws

34%

Virtus Francavilla

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Virtus Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Sarnese picked up more points recently compared to Virtus Francavilla.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Sarnese Clean Sheet 22%

Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sarnese	Virtus Francavilla
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	8	11
Draws	13	10
Losses	10	9
Goals Scored	1.48	1.2
Goals Conceded	1.42	1.1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group H

Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese

Possession: 57% - 48% Cards: 2 - 1

2:2

Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H

Sarnese vs Virtus Francavilla

Possession: 40% - 42% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarnese 32 / 100

Virtus Francavilla 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sarnese Virtus Francavilla

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Virtus Francavilla or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sarnese attacking → ← attacking Virtus Francavilla

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarnese scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Virtus Francavilla let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Sarnese went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Virtus Francavilla lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 43

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barletta	34	20	10	4	54:20	70
2	Martina Calcio	34	18	8	8	47:30	62
3	Citta di Fasano	34	18	8	8	51:35	62
4	Paganese	34	17	7	10	36:32	58
5	A.C.D. Nardo	34	14	13	7	40:27	55
6	Gravina	34	16	7	11	50:40	55
7	Afragolese	34	13	10	11	45:46	49
8	Fidelis Andria	34	13	9	12	35:28	48
9	Virtus Francavilla	34	12	12	10	45:40	48
10	Real Normanna	34	10	13	11	27:26	43
11	Francavilla	34	11	10	13	39:38	43
12	Manfredonia	34	11	10	13	34:39	43
13	Sarnese	34	9	14	11	51:49	41
14	SS Nola 1925	34	11	8	15	42:50	41
15	Heraclea	34	10	8	16	31:39	38
16	Pompei	34	9	7	18	26:38	34
17	Ferrandina	34	7	9	18	21:43	30
18	Acerrana	34	3	5	26	20:74	14