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Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
Sun, Jul 26, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sarpsborg 08 host Ham-Kam in the Eliteserien. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Sarpsborg 08 at 1.25 goals for, 1.63 against; Ham-Kam at 1.5 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Sarpsborg 08 have won 4 to Ham-Kam's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 26, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Ham-Kam. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sarpsborg 08
20%
Draws
38%
Ham-Kam
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarpsborg 08

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Ham-Kam average 1.5 goals a game right now, well clear of Sarpsborg 08's 1.25.
  • Sarpsborg 08 are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Eliteserien form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sarpsborg 08 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Sarpsborg 08 Clean Sheet 20%
Ham-Kam Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarpsborg 08 Ham-Kam
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 5
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 Club Friendly
Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam
2:2
Feb 13, 2026 Club Friendly
Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam
3:2
Aug 31, 2025 Eliteserien
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08
1:3
May 11, 2025 Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam
4:0
Mar 7, 2025 Club Friendly
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarpsborg 08 42 / 100
Ham-Kam 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarpsborg 08 Ham-Kam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ham-Kam let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Sarpsborg 08 scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Sarpsborg 08 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sarpsborg 08 VS Ham-Kam
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarpsborg 08

(Home)
12 Jul
Sarpsborg 08
1 : 0
Viking
03 Jul
Lillestrom
3 : 1
Sarpsborg 08
29 May
Brann
1 : 2
Sarpsborg 08
25 May
Sarpsborg 08
2 : 1
Molde
16 May
Valerenga
3 : 2
Sarpsborg 08
Page 1 of 6

Ham-Kam

(Away)
12 Jul
Sandefjord
2 : 2
Ham-Kam
27 Jun
IFK Goteborg
1 : 2
Ham-Kam
20 Jun
Fredrikstad
1 : 1
Ham-Kam
29 May
Aalesund
2 : 2
Ham-Kam
25 May
Ham-Kam
2 : 0
Lillestrom
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tromso1484222:1428
2Viking1190229:1127
3Bodo/Glimt1282230:1126
4Lillestrom1271419:1122
5Molde1262420:1520
6Ham-Kam1153319:1818
7Sarpsborg 081252514:1617
8Valerenga1352619:2217
9Brann1351726:2116
10Sandefjord1243512:1515
11Fredrikstad1242615:2214
12Rosenborg1233612:1812
13KFUM Oslo1233612:1912
14Aalesund1326518:2812
15Kristiansund1232711:2111
16Start1314814:307
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)