Sport Picks
Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Norway
NM Cup Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 
AI Match Summary
A one-off knockout match in the NM Cup. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Sarpsborg 08 have averaged 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded recently, against Valerenga's 1.97 scored and 1.93 conceded. Past meetings favor Valerenga slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 6, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.81 - 2.06) back Valerenga to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Valerenga at 1.97 per game, Sarpsborg 08 at 1.36.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Sarpsborg 08 Clean Sheet 10%
Valerenga Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarpsborg 08 | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.36 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga
2:2
May 16, 2026 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08
3:2
Aug 17, 2025 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08
4:0
Apr 6, 2025 Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga
1:1
Feb 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarpsborg 08 34 / 100
Valerenga 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarpsborg 08 Valerenga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Valerenga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Valerenga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Sarpsborg 08 scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Sarpsborg 08 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sarpsborg 08 VS Valerenga
1.25 Goals Scored 2.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarpsborg 08
(Home) 18 Oct
Sarpsborg 08
0 : 3 Rosenborg
11 Oct
Aalesund
2 : 4 Sarpsborg 08
30 Sept
Follo
0 : 2 Sarpsborg 08
18 Sept
Sarpsborg 08
1 : 3 KFUM Oslo
13 Sept
Fredrikstad
1 : 1 Sarpsborg 08
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18 Oct
Sarpsborg 08
0 : 3 Rosenborg
18 Sept
Sarpsborg 08
1 : 3 KFUM Oslo
06 Sept
Sarpsborg 08
2 : 2 Valerenga
16 Aug
Sarpsborg 08
1 : 2 Sandefjord
26 Jul
Sarpsborg 08
1 : 0 Ham-Kam
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Valerenga
(Away) 18 Oct
Valerenga
3 : 1 Brann
12 Oct
KFUM Oslo
2 : 1 Valerenga
20 Sept
Valerenga
1 : 1 Fredrikstad
17 Sept
Skeid
1 : 4 Valerenga
12 Sept
Lillestrom
2 : 0 Valerenga
Page 1 of 6
12 Oct
KFUM Oslo
2 : 1 Valerenga
17 Sept
Skeid
1 : 4 Valerenga
12 Sept
Lillestrom
2 : 0 Valerenga
06 Sept
Sarpsborg 08
2 : 2 Valerenga
23 Aug
Christiania BK
2 : 7 Valerenga
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Baerum 4
Mjondalen 0
Aurskog/Finstadbru 0
Lillestrom 3
Froya 0
Sotra 6
Fjora 0
Sogndal 8
Tynset 0
Trygg/Lade 3
Midsund 0
Molde 11
Asker 7
Kvik Halden 0
Modum 0
Stromsgodset 6
Fram 1
Jerv 2
Vag 2
Egersund 5
Fana 1
Bjarg 3
Rosseland 0
Bryne 3
Volda 2
Brattvag 6
Tronder-Lyn 0
Kristiansund 5
Floro 2
Forde 4
Langevag 0
Aalesund 13
Froland 1
Arendal 5
Varhaug 2
Sandnes Ulf 3
Stalkam 2
Rana FK 3
Fauske Sprint 0
Bodo/Glimt 5
Askoy 1
Sandviken 2
Arna-Bjornar 0
Asane 1
Rollon 0
Traeff 7
Spjelkavik 1
Hodd 2
Strindheim 0
Levanger 8
Steinkjer 0
Ranheim 6
Melhus 0
Stjordals Blink 3
Eidsvold IF 1
Fredrikstad 7
Madla IL 3
Vidar 2
Brodd 1
Viking 3
Eik-Tonsberg 1
Honefoss 4
Ready 0
KFUM Oslo 4
Elverum 7
Ull/Kisa 6
Ridabu 0
Raufoss 4
Vindbjart 2
Flekkeroy 1
Flekkefjord 1
Start 2
Bossekop 1
Alta 2
Ulfstind 0
Tromso 5
Nord 0
Djerv 1919 4
V. Haugesund 3
Haugesund 4
Assiden 0
Notodden 4
Teie 0
Odds BK 10
Flint 2
Orn 0
Eidanger 0
Sandefjord 15
Uradd 0
Pors 3
Heming 0
Stabaek 2
Gjovik-Lyn 2
Eidsvold TF 7
Skreia 2
Kongsvinger 14
Harstad 0
Tromsdalen (TUIL) 1
Lillehammer 2
Strommen 4
Gamle Oslo 6
Drobak-Frogn 1
Grei 0
Lyn 4
Floya 5
Junkeren 3
Nationalkameratene 0
Rosenborg 9
Frigg 0
Kjelsas 4
Trysil 0
Ham-Kam 5
Lokomotiv Oslo 1
Grorud 5
Lorenskog 0
Moss 3
OS TF 2
Lysekloster 0
Fyllingen 0
Brann 4
Rade 1
Follo 2
Sparta Sarpsborg 0
Sarpsborg 08 2
Nordstrand 1
Skeid 4
Christiania BK 2
Valerenga 7
1/32-finals
Baerum 1
Lillestrom 5
Sotra 1
Sogndal 2
Trygg/Lade 0
Molde 5
Asker 1
Stromsgodset 4
Jerv 1
Egersund 2
Bjarg 1
Bryne 4
Brattvag 1
Kristiansund 2
Forde 3
Aalesund 4
Arendal 1
Sandnes Ulf 2
Rana FK 2
Bodo/Glimt 6
Sandviken 2
Asane 3
Traeff 0
Hodd 3
Levanger 0
Ranheim 2
Stjordals Blink 0
Fredrikstad 1
Madla IL 0
Viking 3
Honefoss 0
KFUM Oslo 2
Elverum 0
Raufoss 3
Vindbjart 2
Start 3
Alta 1
Tromso 2
Djerv 1919 0
Haugesund 4
Notodden 2
Odds BK 3
Flint 0
Sandefjord 1
Pors 2
Stabaek 1
Eidsvold TF 2
Kongsvinger 3
Tromsdalen (TUIL) 9
Strommen 1
Gamle Oslo 1
Lyn 3
Floya 1
Rosenborg 4
Kjelsas 0
Ham-Kam 2
Grorud 2
Moss 1
OS TF 1
Brann 2
Follo 0
Sarpsborg 08 2
Skeid 1
Valerenga 4
1/16-finals
Lillestrom -
Sogndal -
Molde -
Stromsgodset -
Egersund -
Bryne -
Kristiansund -
Aalesund -
Sandnes Ulf -
Bodo/Glimt -
Asane -
Hodd -
Ranheim -
Fredrikstad -
Viking -
KFUM Oslo -
Raufoss 1
Start 5
Tromso -
Haugesund -
Odds BK -
Sandefjord -
Pors -
Kongsvinger -
Tromsdalen (TUIL) -
Lyn -
Rosenborg -
Ham-Kam -
Grorud -
Brann -
Sarpsborg 08 -
Valerenga -
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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