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Sasso Marconi vs Castelvetro

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2017/2018 game between Sasso Marconi and Castelvetro finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sasso Marconi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Sasso Marconi
15%
Draws
51%
Castelvetro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castelvetro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Sasso Marconi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Sasso Marconi are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Sasso Marconi Clean Sheet 19%
Castelvetro Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sasso Marconi Castelvetro
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.17 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.51 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2018 Serie D - Group D
Sasso Marconi vs Castelvetro
1:0
Oct 8, 2017 Serie D - Group D
Castelvetro vs Sasso Marconi
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sasso Marconi 76 / 100
Castelvetro 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sasso Marconi Castelvetro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sasso Marconi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castelvetro has conceded goals in 90% of their last 31 outings.

Sasso Marconi scored in 74% of their last 35 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Castelvetro's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sasso Marconi VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sasso Marconi

(Home)
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1
Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
Sasso Marconi
0 : 1
Prato
16 Sept
Flaminia
2 : 2
Sasso Marconi
13 Sept
Sasso Marconi
1 : 3
San Donato Tavarnelle
06 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 2
Sasso Marconi
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Castelvetro

(Away)
21 Jul
Modena
9 : 0
Castelvetro
20 May
Castelvetro
0 : 2
Mezzolara
06 May
Romagna Centro
2 : 0
Castelvetro
29 Apr
Castelvetro
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
22 Apr
Mezzolara
1 : 3
Castelvetro
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rimini 38 23 11 4 65:38 80
2 Imolese 38 21 8 9 72:45 71
3 Forli FC 38 18 11 9 60:43 65
4 Fiorenzuola 38 16 16 6 50:32 64
5 Sangiovannese 38 17 10 11 42:38 61
6 Lentigione 38 16 12 10 45:33 60
7 Villabiagio 38 17 8 13 52:49 59
8 Pianese 38 14 16 8 54:35 58
9 Montevarchi 38 16 8 14 42:40 56
10 Romagna Centro 38 14 12 12 49:42 54
11 Sammaurese 38 14 12 12 34:29 54
12 Sasso Marconi 38 11 12 15 35:48 45
13 Vigor Carpaneto 38 9 18 11 50:48 45
14 Tuttocuoio 38 10 12 16 25:34 42
15 Sporting Trestina 38 10 11 17 36:52 41
16 Castelvetro 38 10 8 20 46:62 38
17 Mezzolara 38 7 15 16 34:50 36
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 38 7 12 19 40:62 33
19 Correggese 38 6 14 18 37:55 32
20 Colligiana 38 7 8 23 27:60 29
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2017/2018 (Play Offs)