Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group D

Rovato Vertovese

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sasso Marconi play Rovato Vertovese in the Serie D - Group D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sasso Marconi averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Rovato Vertovese averaged 1.06 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Sasso Marconi won 1, Rovato Vertovese won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Sasso Marconi and 1.06 for Rovato Vertovese. This points to a Rovato Vertovese double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Sasso Marconi

26%

Draws

45%

Rovato Vertovese

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Rovato Vertovese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Sasso Marconi picked up more points recently compared to Rovato Vertovese.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 40%

Over 3.5 Goals 24%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Sasso Marconi Clean Sheet 22%

Rovato Vertovese Clean Sheet 20%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sasso Marconi	Rovato Vertovese
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	8	14
Draws	7	9
Losses	15	8
Goals Scored	1.07	1.06
Goals Conceded	1.37	0.87
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group D

Sasso Marconi vs Rovato Vertovese

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group D

Rovato Vertovese vs Sasso Marconi

Possession: 47% - 43% Cards: 4 - 2

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sasso Marconi Compare

Top Goalscorer Marra N.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Matta G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Rovato Vertovese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chiggiato G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sasso Marconi 31 / 100

Rovato Vertovese 45 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sasso Marconi Rovato Vertovese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Rovato Vertovese or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +17.6%

2.94

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sasso Marconi attacking → ← attacking Rovato Vertovese

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sasso Marconi scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Rovato Vertovese let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Sasso Marconi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Rovato Vertovese lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 51

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Desenzano Calvina	34	23	8	3	60:21	77
2	Lentigione	34	22	7	5	51:23	73
3	Pistoiese	34	20	11	3	61:22	71
4	Piacenza	34	19	7	8	60:35	64
5	Pro Palazzolo	34	16	9	9	44:31	57
6	Pro Sesto	34	15	10	9	45:30	55
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	34	15	10	9	35:29	55
8	Rovato Vertovese	34	14	10	10	35:29	52
9	Sangiuliano City	34	14	8	12	41:45	47
10	SCD Progresso	34	10	9	15	38:42	39
11	Sant'Angelo	34	10	9	15	38:51	39
12	Correggese	34	9	12	13	35:36	39
13	Crema	34	9	11	14	35:47	38
14	Imolese	34	8	10	16	28:47	34
15	Sasso Marconi	34	8	7	19	33:49	31
16	Tropical Coriano	34	7	10	17	29:45	31
17	Trevigliese	34	5	8	21	31:62	23
18	Tuttocuoio	34	0	8	26	18:73	8