Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sassuolo vs Lecce

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Cheddira W.
20' Event
Lauriente A.
Assist: Pedro Felipe
25' Event
Cheddira W.
Assist: Banda L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 2025/2026 game between Sassuolo and Lecce finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lecce.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Sassuolo
28%
Draws
50%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Lecce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Sassuolo's 1.38 goals per match outpaces what Lecce have produced (1).
  • Model gives Lecce a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Sassuolo Clean Sheet 22%
Lecce Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sassuolo Lecce
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie A
Sassuolo vs Lecce
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Sassuolo
0:0
Sep 24, 2024 Coppa Italia
Lecce vs Sassuolo
0:2
Apr 21, 2024 Serie A
Sassuolo vs Lecce
0:3
Oct 6, 2023 Serie A
Lecce vs Sassuolo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sassuolo Compare

Top Goalscorer Lauriente A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pinamonti A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lecce Compare

Top Goalscorer Cheddira W.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Stulic N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sassuolo 24 / 100
Lecce 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sassuolo Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lecce conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Sassuolo scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Sassuolo went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sassuolo VS Lecce
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sassuolo

(Home)
25 Jul
Trento
2 : 0
Sassuolo
25 Jul
Sassuolo
0 : 1
Parma
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
24 May
Parma
1 : 0
Sassuolo
17 May
Sassuolo
2 : 3
Lecce
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Lecce

(Away)
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2
Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2
Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1
Politehnica Timisoara
19 Jul
Haladas
0 : 1
Lecce
24 May
Lecce
1 : 0
Genoa
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inter38276589:3587
2Napoli38237858:3676
3AS Roma382341159:3173
4Como382011765:2971
5AC Milan382010853:3570
6Juventus381912761:3469
7Atalanta381514951:3659
8Bologna381681449:4656
9Lazio3814121241:4054
10Udinese381481645:4850
11Sassuolo381471746:5049
12Torino381291744:6345
13Parma3811121528:4645
14Cagliari3811101740:5343
15Fiorentina389151441:5042
16Genoa3810111741:5141
17Lecce381082028:5038
18Cremonese388102032:5734
19Verona383122325:6121
20Pisa382122426:7118
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)