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Savedalen vs Varbergs GIF

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Savedalen play Varbergs GIF in the Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Savedalen averaged 1.24 goals scored and 2.28 conceded. Varbergs GIF averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.06 conceded. In past meetings, Savedalen won 0, Varbergs GIF won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Aug 4, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Savedalen and 1.19 for Varbergs GIF. This points to a Varbergs GIF double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Savedalen
25%
Draws
42%
Varbergs GIF
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Varbergs GIF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Savedalen picked up more points recently compared to Varbergs GIF.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Savedalen Clean Sheet 20%
Varbergs GIF Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Savedalen Varbergs GIF
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 10
Draws 9 2
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 1.24 1.23
Goals Conceded 2.28 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2024 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Savedalen vs Varbergs GIF
0:1
Mar 29, 2024 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Varbergs GIF vs Savedalen
3:0
Sep 24, 2023 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Savedalen vs Varbergs GIF
2:2
Jun 1, 2023 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Varbergs GIF vs Savedalen
1:1
Aug 20, 2022 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Savedalen vs Varbergs GIF
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Savedalen Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Varbergs GIF Compare

Top Goalscorer Cronvall R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Savedalen 34 / 100
Varbergs GIF 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Savedalen Varbergs GIF

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Varbergs GIF or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Savedalen attacking → ← attacking Varbergs GIF

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Savedalen scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Varbergs GIF let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Savedalen went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Varbergs GIF lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 32
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Husqvarna26167344:2755
2BK Astrio26173663:3054
3Qviding26164668:4352
4Varbergs GIF26155649:3050
5Landvetter26136756:4445
6Frolunda2699858:5036
7Tord261061045:3936
8Laholms26941346:5231
9Lindome26851349:5029
10Bergdalens IK26841453:7028
11Jonsereds26841436:5428
12Savedalen26691133:5727
13Ockero IF26561536:5721
14Hittarp26361721:5415