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SB Castelo Branco vs Alcains Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Silva V.
51' Event
Karamoko M.

AI Match Summary

SB Castelo Branco in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored SB Castelo Branco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
SB Castelo Branco
15%
Draws
28%
Alcains
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SB Castelo Branco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • SB Castelo Branco have won more games recently than Alcains.
  • SB Castelo Branco are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 68%
Alcains Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SB Castelo Branco Alcains
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1.87 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Alcains
2:0
Nov 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alcains vs SB Castelo Branco
0:0
Feb 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Alcains
1:1
Nov 6, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alcains vs SB Castelo Branco
0:2
Jan 17, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
SB Castelo Branco vs Alcains
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SB Castelo Branco Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karamoko M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Alcains Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SB Castelo Branco 59 / 100
Alcains 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SB Castelo Branco Alcains

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SB Castelo Branco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SB Castelo Branco found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Alcains's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Alcains lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SB Castelo Branco VS Alcains
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SB Castelo Branco

(Home)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3
SB Castelo Branco
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Alcains

(Away)
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
13 Apr
Alcains
0 : 2
Alverca B
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1
Alcains
29 Mar
Alcains
0 : 1
Uniao de Coimbra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)