Sport Picks
SB Castelo Branco vs Nogueirense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 
Match Events
5'
5'
Peterson
10'
10'
Miel K.
36'
36'
Peterson
AI Match Summary
Nogueirense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nogueirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
30%
35%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to SB Castelo Branco lately — more wins on the board than Nogueirense.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- SB Castelo Branco have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 18%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | SB Castelo Branco | Nogueirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.65 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Nogueirense
2:3
Mar 10, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs SB Castelo Branco
0:1
Oct 14, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Nogueirense
2:0
Feb 25, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Nogueirense
3:0
Oct 22, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs SB Castelo Branco
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
SB Castelo Branco Compare
Top Goalscorer Miel K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sousa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67
Nogueirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Peterson
2 Goals Assists Leader Lima Cruz R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
SB Castelo Branco 36 / 100
Nogueirense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
SB Castelo Branco Nogueirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nogueirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SB Castelo Branco scored in 81% of their last 31 games.
Nogueirense let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: SB Castelo Branco stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
SB Castelo Branco VS Nogueirense
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.67
75% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
SB Castelo Branco
(Home) 13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4 Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3 SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4 Naval 1893
12 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 2 Samora Correia
21 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 1 Oliveira Hospital
08 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 0 SC Lusitania
Page 1 of 3
Nogueirense
(Away) 13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3 Naval 1893
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3 Nogueirense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3 Nogueirense
12 May
Vilafranquense
2 : 1 Nogueirense
28 Apr
Leiria
4 : 0 Nogueirense
14 Apr
Sertanense
1 : 2 Nogueirense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortagua FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:4 | 10 |
| 2 | O Elvas CAD | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 9 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 5 | Uniao Da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 7 | Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 8 | SB Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 9 | Fatima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 10 | Malveira | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 13 | Fazendense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 14 | GD Os Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:10 | 0 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)
