Sport Picks
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 
Match Events
23'
23'
Sacra
36'
36'
Sacra
(Penalty)
52'
52'
Stankov I.
AI Match Summary
SB Castelo Branco in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored SB Castelo Branco.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
15%
73%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SB Castelo Branco
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- SB Castelo Branco have won more games recently than SC Lusitania.
- Win probability leans SB Castelo Branco's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors SB Castelo Branco here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 13%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | SC Lusitania | SB Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 16 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 19 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.87 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.65 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs SC Lusitania
2:0
Nov 1, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
1:2
Feb 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
3:1
Nov 1, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs SC Lusitania
4:1
Apr 23, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
SC Lusitania Compare
Top Goalscorer Stankov I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
SB Castelo Branco Compare
Top Goalscorer Sacra
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
SC Lusitania 22 / 100
SB Castelo Branco 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
SC Lusitania SB Castelo Branco
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SB Castelo Branco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
SC Lusitania scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: SB Castelo Branco conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
SB Castelo Branco lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
SC Lusitania VS SB Castelo Branco
1 Goals Scored 1
2.29 Goals Conceded 1.13
86% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 25%
43% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
SC Lusitania
(Home) 18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1 SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2 Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1 SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
Page 1 of 6
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2 Oliveira Hospital
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
01 Mar
SC Lusitania
3 : 2 Electrico FC
14 Feb
SC Lusitania
0 : 5 Os Marialvas
24 Jan
SC Lusitania
0 : 1 Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 3
SB Castelo Branco
(Away) 13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4 Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3 SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3 SB Castelo Branco
18 Apr
Fatima
4 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2 SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Sernache | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 33:12 | 55 |
| 2 | Oliveira Hospital | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39:13 | 50 |
| 3 | Naval 1893 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 36:23 | 48 |
| 4 | SB Castelo Branco | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 43:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Uniao Da Serra | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 38:27 | 44 |
| 6 | Mortagua FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 23:26 | 39 |
| 7 | Os Marialvas | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:28 | 36 |
| 8 | Fatima | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:29 | 32 |
| 9 | Lajense | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 37:37 | 32 |
| 10 | GD Peniche | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 34:43 | 30 |
| 11 | Samora Correia | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:35 | 29 |
| 12 | Marinhense | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 20:38 | 24 |
| 13 | Electrico FC | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 33:62 | 19 |
| 14 | SC Lusitania | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:48 | 17 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
