Sport Picks

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SC Rio Grande vs EC Guarani

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SC Rio Grande play EC Guarani in the Gaucho 3. EC Guarani are favorites here. Recently, SC Rio Grande averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. EC Guarani averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, SC Rio Grande won 0, EC Guarani won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 30, 2025 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for SC Rio Grande and 2.25 for EC Guarani. This points to a EC Guarani double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
SC Rio Grande
17%
Draws
60%
EC Guarani
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: EC Guarani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • SC Rio Grande picked up more points recently compared to EC Guarani.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 2.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
SC Rio Grande Clean Sheet 10%
EC Guarani Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Rio Grande EC Guarani
Matches Played 16 30
Wins 4 14
Draws 1 7
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.75 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2025 Gaucho 3
EC Guarani vs SC Rio Grande
4:0
Nov 23, 2025 Gaucho 3
SC Rio Grande vs EC Guarani
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Rio Grande Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

EC Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Denis
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sausen Xavier M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Rio Grande 23 / 100
EC Guarani 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Rio Grande EC Guarani

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Guarani Win (2)
Secondary Pick EC Guarani & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SC Rio Grande attacking → ← attacking EC Guarani

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Rio Grande scored in 50% of their last 16 games.

EC Guarani let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SC Rio Grande went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

EC Guarani lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

13 Points in last 5 49
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 3.25
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50