Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SC Vila Real vs FC Alpendorada

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SC Vila Real play FC Alpendorada in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group B. It looks like a close match. Recently, SC Vila Real averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. FC Alpendorada averaged 1.37 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, SC Vila Real won 0, FC Alpendorada won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jan 25, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for SC Vila Real and 1.44 for FC Alpendorada. This points to a FC Alpendorada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
SC Vila Real
35%
Draws
36%
FC Alpendorada
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FC Alpendorada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • SC Vila Real picked up more points recently compared to FC Alpendorada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
SC Vila Real Clean Sheet 16%
FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Vila Real FC Alpendorada
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 12 11
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.97 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
SC Vila Real vs FC Alpendorada
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
FC Alpendorada vs SC Vila Real
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Vila Real Compare

Top Goalscorer Leite F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

FC Alpendorada Compare

Top Goalscorer Carvalho P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Vila Real 29 / 100
FC Alpendorada 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Vila Real FC Alpendorada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Alpendorada or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SC Vila Real attacking → ← attacking FC Alpendorada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Vila Real scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

FC Alpendorada let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

SC Vila Real went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

FC Alpendorada lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 44
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rebordosa26177241:1758
2Leca26149350:2351
3Cinfaes261010633:2140
4Beira Mar26108830:2238
5FC Alpendorada26911630:2238
6Florgrade26910728:2837
7Vila Mea26713629:2834
8Uniao Lamas26961127:3333
9SC Salgueiros26711820:1932
10Anadia26791027:3330
11Aparecida26941336:5128
12GD Resende266101027:3128
13SC Vila Real26512923:3027
14CD Gouveia26142114:577