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SCD Progresso vs Crema

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Mozzanica J.

AI Match Summary

Crema in this Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Crema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
SCD Progresso
15%
Draws
12%
Crema
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SCD Progresso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • SCD Progresso have won more games recently than Crema.
  • Model gives SCD Progresso a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 68%
Crema Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCD Progresso Crema
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.1 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Crema
0:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Crema vs SCD Progresso
2:1
Apr 5, 2020 Serie D - Group D
Crema vs SCD Progresso
0:0
Nov 24, 2019 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Crema
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SCD Progresso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Crema Compare

Top Goalscorer Mozzanica J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCD Progresso 59 / 100
Crema 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCD Progresso Crema

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCD Progresso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: SCD Progresso scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Crema has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Crema lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SCD Progresso VS Crema
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SCD Progresso

(Home)
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
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Crema

(Away)
20 Sept
Crema
0 : 3
Pro Sesto
16 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 0
Crema
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
08 Aug
Lumezzane
1 : 0
Crema
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Desenzano Calvina 34 23 8 3 60:21 77
2 Lentigione 34 22 7 5 51:23 73
3 Pistoiese 34 20 11 3 61:22 71
4 Piacenza 34 19 7 8 60:35 64
5 Pro Palazzolo 34 16 9 9 44:31 57
6 Pro Sesto 34 15 10 9 45:30 55
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 34 15 10 9 35:29 55
8 Rovato Vertovese 34 14 10 10 35:29 52
9 Sangiuliano City 34 14 8 12 41:45 47
10 SCD Progresso 34 10 9 15 38:42 39
11 Sant'Angelo 34 10 9 15 38:51 39
12 Correggese 34 9 12 13 35:36 39
13 Crema 34 9 11 14 35:47 38
14 Imolese 34 8 10 16 28:47 34
15 Sasso Marconi 34 8 7 19 33:49 31
16 Tropical Coriano 34 7 10 17 29:45 31
17 Trevigliese 34 5 8 21 31:62 23
18 Tuttocuoio 34 0 8 26 18:73 8
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Out)