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Schalke vs Mainz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Schalke host Mainz in the Bundesliga. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Mainz have shipped 1.12 goals a game lately, while Schalke have conceded 1.31 and scored 1.9. Past meetings favor Schalke slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 5, 2023, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 2.63, favoring Schalke. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Schalke
30%
Draws
33%
Mainz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Schalke

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mainz lately — more wins on the board than Schalke.
  • Win probability leans Schalke's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Schalke Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Schalke Mainz
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 17 20
Draws 6 7
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.9 2.59
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2023 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Schalke
2:3
Nov 9, 2022 Bundesliga
Schalke vs Mainz
1:0
Mar 5, 2021 Bundesliga
Schalke vs Mainz
0:0
Nov 7, 2020 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Schalke
2:2
Feb 16, 2020 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Schalke
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Schalke 34 / 100
Mainz 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Schalke Mainz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Schalke went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Schalke scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Mainz let in goals in 56% of their last 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Schalke VS Mainz
1.63 Goals Scored 3.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Schalke

(Home)
03 Oct
A. Lustenau
0 : 1
Schalke
24 Sept
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen
2 : 5
Schalke
20 Sept
Schalke
0 : 0
Elversberg
11 Sept
Union Berlin
1 : 3
Schalke
05 Sept
Schalke
0 : 0
Bayern Munich
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Mainz

(Away)
03 Oct
Mannheim
0 : 3
Mainz
19 Sept
B. Monchengladbach
3 : 4
Mainz
12 Sept
Mainz
1 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)