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Scotland vs Iceland

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Friendly International 2025 Hampden Park
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AI Match Summary

Scotland play Iceland in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Scotland averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Iceland averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Scotland won 4, Iceland won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 6, 2025 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Scotland and 1.25 for Iceland. This points to a Scotland double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Scotland
15%
Draws
35%
Iceland
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Scotland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Scotland picked up more points recently compared to Iceland.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Scotland Clean Sheet 19%
Iceland Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Scotland Iceland
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.37 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2025 Friendly International
Scotland vs Iceland
1:3
Apr 1, 2009 World Championship
Scotland vs Iceland
2:1
Sep 10, 2008 World Championship
Iceland vs Scotland
1:2
Mar 29, 2003 Euro
Scotland vs Iceland
2:1
Oct 12, 2002 Euro
Iceland vs Scotland
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Scotland Compare

Top Goalscorer Souttar J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Iceland Compare

Top Goalscorer Gudjohnsen A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palsson V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Scotland 49 / 100
Iceland 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Scotland Iceland

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Scotland or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Scotland attacking → ← attacking Iceland

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Scotland scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Iceland let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scotland went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Iceland lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 34
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13