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SD Deusto vs Bermeo

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019 game between SD Deusto and Bermeo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SD Deusto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
SD Deusto
35%
Draws
28%
Bermeo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: SD Deusto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SD Deusto come out ahead of Bermeo on wins alone.
  • Model gives SD Deusto a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
SD Deusto Clean Sheet 68%
Bermeo Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Deusto Bermeo
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 11 2
Draws 11 9
Losses 18 19
Goals Scored 1 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Bermeo
2:1
Sep 8, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs SD Deusto
1:1
Feb 10, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Bermeo
1:0
Sep 30, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs SD Deusto
1:0
May 13, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs SD Deusto
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Deusto 77 / 100
Bermeo 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Deusto Bermeo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SD Deusto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bermeo has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: SD Deusto scored in 63% of their last 40 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: SD Deusto remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SD Deusto VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Deusto

(Home)
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Deusto
03 May
SD Deusto
1 : 3
Leioa
26 Apr
Eibar C
5 : 0
SD Deusto
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1
SD Deusto
Page 1 of 8

Bermeo

(Away)
18 May
Bermeo
1 : 2
Alaves B
11 May
Real Sociedad C
4 : 0
Bermeo
04 May
Bermeo
1 : 1
Balmaseda
27 Apr
Zamudio
0 : 0
Bermeo
18 Apr
Bermeo
3 : 3
SD San Pedro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 38 26 8 4 65:21 86
2 Sestao 38 22 12 4 74:36 78
3 Alaves B 38 18 12 8 69:44 66
4 San Ignacio 38 17 12 9 66:36 63
5 Balmaseda 38 17 12 9 50:36 63
6 Basconia 38 16 12 10 64:52 60
7 Real Sociedad C 38 16 11 11 71:48 59
8 Somorrostro 38 14 15 9 59:43 57
9 Sodupe 38 11 17 10 49:45 50
10 Pasaia 38 12 13 13 33:46 49
11 Santutxu FC 38 12 12 14 38:48 48
12 Lagun Onak 38 12 12 14 46:46 48
13 Beasain 38 9 19 10 46:40 46
14 Santurtzi 38 10 15 13 33:42 45
15 SD Deusto 38 10 13 15 41:55 43
16 Zamudio 38 10 9 19 42:66 39
17 Amurrio Club 38 8 10 20 30:64 34
18 Ordizia 38 5 16 17 40:72 31
19 SD San Pedro 38 6 11 21 40:69 29
20 Bermeo 38 2 13 23 24:71 19
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)