Sport Picks

South Korea

K4 League

Geoje

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This K4 League encounter between Sejong SA and Geoje promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Sejong SA averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in recent matches. Geoje shows a form average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Sejong SA, 1 wins for Geoje, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 20.06.26 ended in a 1:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.56 for Sejong SA and 1.88 for Geoje, suggesting the primary value lies in the Sejong SA double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Sejong SA

15%

Draws

40%

Geoje

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sejong SA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Sejong SA picked up more points recently compared to Geoje.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 71%

Over 3.5 Goals 43%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Sejong SA Clean Sheet 10%

Geoje Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sejong SA	Geoje
Matches Played	17	23
Wins	8	10
Draws	2	3
Losses	7	10
Goals Scored	1.47	1.78
Goals Conceded	1.47	1.74
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

20.06.26 K4 League

Geoje vs Sejong SA

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

1:2

15.03.26 K4 League

Sejong SA vs Geoje

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

0:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Sejong SA

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Geoje

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sejong SA 43 / 100

Geoje 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sejong SA Geoje

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sejong SA or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.3%

1.54

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Sejong SA 50%

Geoje 32%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Sejong SA 43%

Geoje 42%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Sejong SA 45%

Geoje 40%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Sejong SA 47%

Geoje 38%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Sejong SA 41%

Geoje 44%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Sejong SA 52%

Geoje 46%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sejong SA attacking → ← attacking Geoje

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sejong SA have found the net in 65% of their last 17 matches.

Geoje have conceded at least one goal in 78% of their last 23 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.00 goals per match.

Sejong SA remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Geoje suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 33

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.25

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jinju Citizen	15	13	1	1	38:12	40
2	Jincheon	15	9	4	2	30:11	31
3	Geumsan Insam	15	6	6	3	25:17	24
4	Jecheon Citizen	15	6	6	3	16:17	24
5	Seoul Jungnang	15	6	4	5	24:19	22
6	Namyangju	15	5	5	5	18:19	20
7	Pyeongchang United	15	6	2	7	19:21	20
8	Sejong SA	14	6	2	6	19:23	20
9	Geoje	14	5	3	6	26:21	18
10	Gijang United	15	5	2	8	19:26	17
11	Haman	15	4	2	9	15:26	14
12	Pyeongtaek Citizen	15	2	3	10	16:32	9
13	Seosan Pioneer	14	3	0	11	15:36	9