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Selaya vs UM Escobedo

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Manteca A.
14' Event
Serrera P.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between Selaya and UM Escobedo finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Selaya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Selaya
20%
Draws
40%
UM Escobedo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UM Escobedo come out ahead of Selaya on wins alone.
  • Selaya are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Selaya Clean Sheet 16%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Selaya UM Escobedo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 15
Draws 7 3
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.79 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Selaya
2:1
Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Selaya vs UM Escobedo
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Selaya
3:1
Jan 29, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Selaya
2:0
Oct 3, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Selaya vs UM Escobedo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Selaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Manteca A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Serrera P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

UM Escobedo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Selaya 41 / 100
UM Escobedo 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Selaya UM Escobedo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UM Escobedo let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Difficult form: UM Escobedo registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Selaya found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Selaya VS UM Escobedo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Selaya

(Home)
26 Sept
UM Escobedo
2 : 1
Selaya
20 Sept
Selaya
1 : 0
Atletico Albericia
12 Sept
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Selaya
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
21 Aug
Selaya
0 : 3
Cayon CD
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UM Escobedo

(Away)
26 Sept
UM Escobedo
2 : 1
Selaya
20 Sept
CD Laredo
2 : 0
UM Escobedo
12 Sept
UM Escobedo
0 : 3
Bezana
05 Sept
Torina
1 : 1
UM Escobedo
23 May
CD Laredo
3 : 1
UM Escobedo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)