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Semen Padang vs Madura United

Indonesia Indonesia

Super League Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Junior Brandao
Assist: Alesandro F.
30'
Guillermo
46'
Sub
Lulinha In: Nufiandani A.
Out: Lulinha

AI Match Summary

Madura United in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Madura United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Semen Padang
6%
Draws
90%
Madura United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Madura United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Madura United have won more games recently than Semen Padang.
  • Madura United are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Semen Padang Clean Sheet 17%
Madura United Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Semen Padang Madura United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 22 15
Goals Scored 0.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Super League
Semen Padang vs Madura United
0:1
Dec 28, 2025 Super League
Madura United vs Semen Padang
5:1
May 4, 2025 Super League
Semen Padang vs Madura United
2:1
Dec 10, 2024 Super League
Madura United vs Semen Padang
0:1
Oct 20, 2019 Super League
Semen Padang vs Madura United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Semen Padang Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Madura United Compare

Top Goalscorer Junior Brandao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Semen Padang 10 / 100
Madura United 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Semen Padang Madura United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madura United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Semen Padang's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Madura United's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Semen Padang VS Madura United
0.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Persib Bandung34247359:2279
2Borneo34254574:3179
3Persija Jakarta34225765:2971
4Persebaya341610861:3558
5FC Bhayangkara341651353:4553
6Malut United341581168:5353
7Dewa United341651344:3753
8Bali United341491157:4851
9Arema FC341391253:4748
10Persita341361538:3745
11PSIM Yogyakarta3411121143:4445
12Persik Kediri341161742:6139
13Persijap Jepara34991631:4536
14Madura United34981737:5435
15PSM Makassar348101639:4934
16Persis Solo348101639:5934
17Semen Padang34552422:6520
18PSBS Biak Numfor34462431:9518