Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade

Burundi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Senegal play Burundi in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. Senegal are favorites here. Recently, Senegal averaged 2.03 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Burundi averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Senegal won 4, Burundi won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 19, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Senegal and 1.31 for Burundi. This points to a Senegal double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%

Senegal

15%

Draws

26%

Burundi

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Senegal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Senegal picked up more points recently compared to Burundi.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%

Senegal Clean Sheet 18%

Burundi Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Senegal	Burundi
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	18	9
Draws	4	4
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	2.03	1.14
Goals Conceded	0.93	1.29
Expected Goals (xG)	2.50	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Senegal vs Burundi

Possession: 42% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

2:0

Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Burundi vs Senegal

Possession: 42% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Jun 4, 2016 Africa Cup of Nations

Burundi vs Senegal

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Jun 13, 2015 Africa Cup of Nations

Senegal vs Burundi

Possession: 47% - 48% Cards: 0 - 3

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarra H.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.92

Avg xA / game 1.25

Burundi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senegal 57 / 100

Burundi 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Senegal Burundi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Senegal Win (1)

Secondary Pick Senegal & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.6%

1.96

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Senegal attacking → ← attacking Burundi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Senegal scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Burundi let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Senegal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Burundi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 31

2.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4