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Senegal vs Gambia

World World

Friendly International Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, Diamniadio
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Sub
Mendy N. In: Camara L.
Out: Mendy N.
43'
Barry A.
45' Event
Seck A.
Assist: Diouf M.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Senegal and Gambia finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Senegal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Senegal
20%
Draws
40%
Gambia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Senegal come out ahead of Gambia on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Senegal have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Senegal Clean Sheet 24%
Gambia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Senegal Gambia
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 17 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 2 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.77 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Friendly International
Senegal vs Gambia
3:1
Jan 15, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Gambia
3:0
Jul 4, 2015 African Nations Championship
Gambia vs Senegal
0:1
Jun 20, 2015 African Nations Championship
Senegal vs Gambia
3:1
Oct 11, 2008 World Championship
Senegal vs Gambia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Seck A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbaye I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.13
Avg xA / game 1.39

Gambia Compare

Top Goalscorer Colley O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senegal 33 / 100
Gambia 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Senegal Gambia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gambia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Senegal scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Gambia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Gambia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Senegal VS Gambia
2.88 Goals Scored 1.33
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.67
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Senegal

(Home)
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
16 Jun
France
3 : 1
Senegal
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0 : 0
Senegal
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Gambia

(Away)
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
31 Mar
Senegal
3 : 1
Gambia
18 Nov
Kuwait
2 : 2
Gambia
14 Oct
Seychelles
0 : 7
Gambia
10 Oct
Gambia
3 : 4
Gabon
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