Sport Picks
Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA Sofia III
Bulgaria
Third League - South-West 2025/2026 National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia 
AI Match Summary
The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between Septemvri Simitli and CSKA Sofia III finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Simitli.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
35%
22%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Septemvri Simitli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Septemvri Simitli come out ahead of CSKA Sofia III on wins alone.
- Septemvri Simitli are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Regular Third League - South-West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 20%
CSKA Sofia III Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Septemvri Simitli | CSKA Sofia III |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA Sofia III
0:0
Mar 7, 2026 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA Sofia III
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 Third League - South-West
CSKA Sofia III vs Septemvri Simitli
1:1
Apr 2, 2025 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA Sofia III
1:1
Sep 7, 2024 Third League - South-West
CSKA Sofia III vs Septemvri Simitli
2:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Septemvri Simitli 40 / 100
CSKA Sofia III 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Septemvri Simitli CSKA Sofia III
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Septemvri Simitli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Septemvri Simitli scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: CSKA Sofia III conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Septemvri Simitli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Septemvri Simitli VS CSKA Sofia III
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Septemvri Simitli
(Home) 29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3 Natsional Sofia
22 Aug
Chavdar Etropole
4 : 2 Septemvri Simitli
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0 CSKA Sofia III
08 Aug
Balkan Botevgrad
1 : 2 Septemvri Simitli
01 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
2 : 0 Kostinbrod
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29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3 Natsional Sofia
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0 CSKA Sofia III
01 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
2 : 0 Kostinbrod
29 May
Septemvri Simitli
2 : 0 Kyustendil
16 May
Septemvri Simitli
4 : 1 Kostinbrod
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CSKA Sofia III
(Away) 29 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
2 : 1 CSKA Sofia III
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1 Kyustendil
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0 CSKA Sofia III
08 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
0 : 0 Strumska Slava
01 Aug
Oborishte Panagyurishte
1 : 1 CSKA Sofia III
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29 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
2 : 1 CSKA Sofia III
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0 CSKA Sofia III
01 Aug
Oborishte Panagyurishte
1 : 1 CSKA Sofia III
23 May
Bistritsa
0 : 3 CSKA Sofia III
09 May
Balkan Botevgrad
1 : 4 CSKA Sofia III
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rilski Sportist | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 58:23 | 80 |
| 2 | Strumska Slava | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 71:45 | 65 |
| 3 | Slavia Sofia 2 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 68:44 | 57 |
| 4 | Botev Ihtiman | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:40 | 51 |
| 5 | Kyustendil | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 49:52 | 50 |
| 6 | CSKA Sofia III | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 49:43 | 50 |
| 7 | Oborishte Panagyurishte | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 43:37 | 49 |
| 8 | Balkan Botevgrad | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 50:45 | 49 |
| 9 | Septemvri Sofia 2 | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 50:43 | 48 |
| 10 | Septemvri Simitli | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 41:40 | 47 |
| 11 | Kostinbrod | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 47:51 | 47 |
| 12 | Pirin Razlog | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 43:48 | 45 |
| 13 | Bansko | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 39:45 | 44 |
| 14 | Slivnishki Geroy | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:49 | 42 |
| 15 | Levski Sofia II | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 30:44 | 40 |
| 16 | Gotse Delchev | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 43:70 | 37 |
| 17 | Germaneya | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 38:75 | 18 |
| 18 | Bistritsa | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 44:62 | 38 |
Relegation - Third League - South-West 2025/2026 (Relegation)
