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Septemvri Simitli vs Kostinbrod

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West game between Septemvri Simitli and Kostinbrod finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Simitli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Septemvri Simitli
30%
Draws
42%
Kostinbrod
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kostinbrod

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Septemvri Simitli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 20%
Kostinbrod Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Septemvri Simitli Kostinbrod
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 14
Draws 5 3
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Kostinbrod
2:0
May 16, 2026 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Kostinbrod
4:1
Nov 1, 2025 Third League - South-West
Kostinbrod vs Septemvri Simitli
2:3
May 25, 2024 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Kostinbrod
0:0
Nov 11, 2023 Third League - South-West
Kostinbrod vs Septemvri Simitli
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Septemvri Simitli 32 / 100
Kostinbrod 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Septemvri Simitli Kostinbrod

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Septemvri Simitli scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Kostinbrod conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Septemvri Simitli remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Septemvri Simitli VS Kostinbrod
1.88 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Septemvri Simitli

(Home)
05 Sept
Pirin Razlog
1 : 1
Septemvri Simitli
29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3
Natsional Sofia
22 Aug
Chavdar Etropole
4 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
08 Aug
Balkan Botevgrad
1 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
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Kostinbrod

(Away)
05 Sept
Kostinbrod
1 : 3
Septemvri Sofia 2
29 Aug
Levski Sofia II
1 : 2
Kostinbrod
23 Aug
Kostinbrod
1 : 0
Slavia Sofia 2
15 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
1 : 0
Kostinbrod
08 Aug
Kostinbrod
3 : 1
Kyustendil
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