Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2025/2026 National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between Septemvri Simitli and Kyustendil finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Simitli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Septemvri Simitli
35%
Draws
30%
Kyustendil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Kyustendil haven't matched Septemvri Simitli's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Septemvri Simitli's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 20%
Kyustendil Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Septemvri Simitli Kyustendil
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil
2:0
Nov 15, 2025 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli
1:0
Jun 4, 2025 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil
3:1
Nov 23, 2024 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli
3:0
Mar 16, 2024 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Septemvri Simitli 42 / 100
Kyustendil 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Septemvri Simitli Kyustendil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Septemvri Simitli scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Kyustendil conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Septemvri Simitli has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Septemvri Simitli VS Kyustendil
1.88 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Septemvri Simitli

(Home)
05 Sept
Pirin Razlog
1 : 1
Septemvri Simitli
29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3
Natsional Sofia
22 Aug
Chavdar Etropole
4 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
08 Aug
Balkan Botevgrad
1 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
Page 1 of 6

Kyustendil

(Away)
05 Sept
Natsional Sofia
1 : 1
Kyustendil
29 Aug
Kyustendil
3 : 1
Chavdar Etropole
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1
Kyustendil
15 Aug
Kyustendil
0 : 1
Balkan Botevgrad
08 Aug
Kostinbrod
3 : 1
Kyustendil
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rilski Sportist 34 25 5 4 58:23 80
2 Strumska Slava 34 20 5 9 71:45 65
3 Slavia Sofia 2 34 17 6 11 68:44 57
4 Botev Ihtiman 34 14 9 11 53:40 51
5 Kyustendil 34 15 5 14 49:52 50
6 CSKA Sofia III 34 15 5 14 49:43 50
7 Oborishte Panagyurishte 34 14 7 13 43:37 49
8 Balkan Botevgrad 34 13 10 11 50:45 49
9 Septemvri Sofia 2 34 13 9 12 50:43 48
10 Septemvri Simitli 34 13 8 13 41:40 47
11 Kostinbrod 34 14 5 15 47:51 47
12 Pirin Razlog 34 13 6 15 43:48 45
13 Bansko 34 11 11 12 39:45 44
14 Slivnishki Geroy 34 11 9 14 40:49 42
15 Levski Sofia II 34 11 7 16 30:44 40
16 Gotse Delchev 34 11 4 19 43:70 37
17 Germaneya 34 4 6 24 38:75 18
18 Bistritsa 34 11 5 18 44:62 38
Relegation - Third League - South-West 2025/2026 (Relegation)