Sport Picks
Septemvri Tervel vs Spartak Varna II
Bulgaria
Third League - North-East 
AI Match Summary
The Third League - North-East game between Septemvri Tervel and Spartak Varna II finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Tervel.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Septemvri Tervel
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Septemvri Tervel come out ahead of Spartak Varna II on wins alone.
- Model gives Septemvri Tervel a 90% chance of winning this.
- Regular Third League - North-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Septemvri Tervel have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Septemvri Tervel Clean Sheet 20%
Spartak Varna II Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Septemvri Tervel | Spartak Varna II |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 22 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 3.13 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.63 | 2.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.63 | 2.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 24, 2026 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Spartak Varna II
4:1
Nov 30, 2025 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Septemvri Tervel
1:2
May 17, 2025 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Septemvri Tervel
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Spartak Varna II
3:2
May 19, 2024 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Spartak Varna II
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Septemvri Tervel 85 / 100
Spartak Varna II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Septemvri Tervel Spartak Varna II
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Septemvri Tervel found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Spartak Varna II conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Septemvri Tervel went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Septemvri Tervel VS Spartak Varna II
3.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Septemvri Tervel
(Home) 24 May
Septemvri Tervel
4 : 1 Spartak Varna II
20 May
Septemvri Tervel
0 : 1 Ludogorets III
17 May
Cherno More II
0 : 2 Septemvri Tervel
13 May
Septemvri Tervel
0 : 1 Chernomorets Balchik
09 May
Fratria II
0 : 4 Septemvri Tervel
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Septemvri Tervel
4 : 1 Spartak Varna II
20 May
Septemvri Tervel
0 : 1 Ludogorets III
13 May
Septemvri Tervel
0 : 1 Chernomorets Balchik
02 May
Septemvri Tervel
5 : 0 FK Riltzi
22 Apr
Septemvri Tervel
0 : 4 Chernolomets
Page 1 of 3
Spartak Varna II
(Away) 30 May
Spartak Varna II
1 : 1 Svetkavitsa 2014
24 May
Septemvri Tervel
4 : 1 Spartak Varna II
13 May
Spartak Varna II
0 : 3 Cherno More II
09 May
Chernomorets Balchik
2 : 0 Spartak Varna II
03 May
Spartak Varna II
0 : 0 Fratria II
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Septemvri Tervel
4 : 1 Spartak Varna II
09 May
Chernomorets Balchik
2 : 0 Spartak Varna II
25 Apr
FK Riltzi
4 : 3 Spartak Varna II
15 Apr
Chernolomets
7 : 1 Spartak Varna II
06 Apr
Olympic Varna
2 : 2 Spartak Varna II
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernomorets Balchik | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 92:14 | 85 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 101:19 | 79 |
| 3 | Septemvri Tervel | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 89:22 | 78 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 32 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 93:28 | 72 |
| 5 | Chernolomets | 32 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 78:43 | 63 |
| 6 | Benkovski | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 68:40 | 60 |
| 7 | Cherno More II | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 65:44 | 55 |
| 8 | Ustrem Donchevo | 32 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 73:67 | 54 |
| 9 | Olympic Varna | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 58:80 | 36 |
| 10 | Aksakovo | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 40:68 | 31 |
| 11 | Fratria II | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:71 | 30 |
| 12 | Svetkavitsa 2014 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 26:48 | 29 |
| 13 | Botev Novi Pazar | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34:69 | 29 |
| 14 | Dorostol | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 29:67 | 28 |
| 15 | Spartak Varna II | 32 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 42:72 | 26 |
| 16 | FK Riltzi | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 31:83 | 22 |
| 17 | Svetkavitsa | 32 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 5:129 | 1 |
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