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SER Caxias do Sul vs Maringa FC

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estadio Francisco Stedile
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SER Caxias do Sul play Maringa FC in the Serie C. It looks like a close match. Recently, SER Caxias do Sul averaged 0.97 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Maringa FC averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, SER Caxias do Sul won 1, Maringa FC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 21, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for SER Caxias do Sul and 1.19 for Maringa FC. This points to a Maringa FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
SER Caxias do Sul
30%
Draws
38%
Maringa FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maringa FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • SER Caxias do Sul picked up more points recently compared to Maringa FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 20%
Maringa FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SER Caxias do Sul Maringa FC
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.97 1.93
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Serie C
SER Caxias do Sul vs Maringa FC
1:1
Aug 30, 2025 Serie C
Maringa FC vs SER Caxias do Sul
3:0
Jun 10, 2018 Serie D
SER Caxias do Sul vs Maringa FC
3:0
Jun 3, 2018 Serie D
Maringa FC vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:1
Jul 10, 2016 Serie D
SER Caxias do Sul vs Maringa FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Maringa FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Santos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SER Caxias do Sul 33 / 100
Maringa FC 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SER Caxias do Sul Maringa FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Maringa FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SER Caxias do Sul attacking → ← attacking Maringa FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SER Caxias do Sul scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Maringa FC let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

SER Caxias do Sul went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Maringa FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 47
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Brusque1373320:1424
2Guarani1365223:1123
3Internacional de Limeira1364316:1422
4Santa Cruz1363413:921
5Paysandu PA1362519:1720
6SER Caxias do Sul1355313:1020
7Botafogo PB1361617:1519
8Maringa FC1354426:2419
9Ituano1354415:1319
10Floresta EC1354415:1419
11Ferroviaria1354412:1119
12Ypiranga FC1353516:1718
13Amazonas1352613:1817
14Volta Redonda1352610:1517
15Figueirense1344512:1816
16Barra FC (Santa Catarina)1336416:1415
17Maranhao133559:1314
18Itabaiana1334611:1713
19Confianca133288:1211
20Anapolis132389:179