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SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estadio Francisco Stedile
Sat, Feb 21, 2026
0 - 2
07:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Felipe Rangel
Assist: Araujo
38'
Matheus Nunes
46'
Sub
Yann Rolim In: Jhonatan Ribeiro
Out: Yann Rolim

AI Match Summary

Sao Luiz in this Gaucho matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Luiz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
SER Caxias do Sul
44%
Draws
20%
Sao Luiz
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • SER Caxias do Sul have won more games recently than Sao Luiz.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Gaucho form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 23%
Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SER Caxias do Sul Sao Luiz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 10
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz
0:2
Feb 16, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:2
Jan 11, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz
1:0
Jan 27, 2024 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sao Luiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Rangel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SER Caxias do Sul 37 / 100
Sao Luiz 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SER Caxias do Sul Sao Luiz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: SER Caxias do Sul scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Sao Luiz conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: SER Caxias do Sul remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SER Caxias do Sul VS Sao Luiz
1 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Novo Hamburgo5
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Sao Luiz3
SER Caxias do Sul2
Final
Novo Hamburgo1
Sao Luiz2