Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Serbia U21 vs Italy U21

World World

Friendly International 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Miladinovic I.
42'
Sub
Micic L. In: Ergelas M.
Out: Micic L.
46'
Sub
Miladinovic I. In: Vasiljevic F.
Out: Miladinovic I.

AI Match Summary

Italy U21 in this Friendly International 2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Serbia U21
15%
Draws
41%
Italy U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serbia U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Serbia U21 haven't matched Italy U21's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Italy U21 a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Serbia U21 Clean Sheet 11%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serbia U21 Italy U21
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 18
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 4
Goals Scored 1.32 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2023 Friendly International
Serbia U21 vs Italy U21
0:2
Mar 27, 2018 Friendly International
Serbia U21 vs Italy U21
0:1
Sep 2, 2016 Euro U21
Italy U21 vs Serbia U21
1:1
Nov 13, 2015 Euro U21
Serbia U21 vs Italy U21
1:1
Mar 30, 2015 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Serbia U21
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serbia U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mulattieri S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serbia U21 27 / 100
Italy U21 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serbia U21 Italy U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serbia U21's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Serbia U21 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Italy U21 conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Serbia U21 VS Italy U21
1.38 Goals Scored 2.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Serbia U21

(Home)
25 Sept
Serbia U21
3 : 0
Iraq U23
30 Mar
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 2
Serbia U21
26 Mar
Kyrgyzstan U23
2 : 2
Serbia U21
18 Nov
Serbia U21
1 : 0
USA U21
14 Nov
Czech Republic U21
1 : 2
Serbia U21
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Italy U21

(Away)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
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