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Serbia vs Netherlands - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Stadion Rajko Mitić, Belgrade
Serbia Logo

Serbia

1 - 2
FT
Netherlands Logo

Netherlands

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Lukic S.
17'
Sub
Gakpo C. In: van Bommel R.
Out: Gakpo C.
30' Event
Meerdink M.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Netherlands in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Netherlands.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Serbia
20%
Draws
80%
Netherlands
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Netherlands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Netherlands have won more games recently than Serbia.
  • Win probability leans Netherlands's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Serbia Clean Sheet 10%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serbia Netherlands
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 0.9 2.37
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Netherlands vs Serbia
2:1
Sep 27, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Serbia vs Netherlands
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serbia Compare

Top Goalscorer Jovic L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Meerdink M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serbia 10 / 100
Netherlands 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serbia Netherlands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Netherlands Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Serbia scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Netherlands lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serbia VS Netherlands
0.63 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Serbia

(Home)
04 Oct
Netherlands
2 : 1
Serbia
01 Oct
Germany
2 : 0
Serbia
27 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Netherlands
24 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Greece
05 Jun
Mexico
5 : 1
Serbia
Page 1 of 6

Netherlands

(Away)
04 Oct
Netherlands
2 : 1
Serbia
01 Oct
Greece
2 : 2
Netherlands
27 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Netherlands
24 Sept
Netherlands
1 : 1
Germany
30 Jun
Netherlands
1 : 2
Morocco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)