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Sergipe vs Amadense

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sergipano 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Nino Guerreiro
21' Event
Wberlan
Own Goal
40' Event
Cristiano Alagoano
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Sergipe in this Campeonato Sergipano 2018 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sergipe
20%
Draws
48%
Amadense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Amadense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sergipe lately — more wins on the board than Amadense.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Sergipe taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato Sergipano 2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%
Amadense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe Amadense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 9 3
Losses 7 21
Goals Scored 1.38 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.97 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2018 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Amadense
4:1
Apr 25, 2017 Sergipano
Amadense vs Sergipe
1:2
Mar 8, 2017 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Amadense
0:2
Jan 21, 2017 Sergipano
Amadense vs Sergipe
1:1
Mar 5, 2016 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Amadense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Nino Guerreiro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diogo Carlos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Amadense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 68 / 100
Amadense 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe Amadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sergipe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Amadense has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Amadense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
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Amadense

(Away)
12 Oct
Estanciano EC
2 : 1
Amadense
05 Oct
Amadense
0 : 1
CS Maruinense
02 Oct
Botafogo ASF
3 : 0
Amadense
21 Sept
Amadense
3 : 0
Riachao
17 Sept
Amadense
0 : 1
AD Boquinhense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 7 1 1 15:3 22
2 Itabaiana 9 4 4 1 10:4 16
3 Confianca 9 4 3 2 12:9 15
4 Olimpico EC 9 3 6 0 15:8 15
5 Boca Junior 9 4 2 3 8:8 14
6 Lagarto 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
7 Dorense 9 2 5 2 7:6 11
8 Frei Paulistano 9 3 1 5 6:10 10
9 Amadense 9 1 1 7 5:21 4
10 Socorrense 9 0 2 7 8:18 2
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)