Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sergipe vs America de Propria

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Sun, Mar 1, 2026
2 - 1
08:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Lucas Mineiro
40'
Recife Felipe
40'
Carioca

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Sergipe
20%
Draws
0%
America de Propria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sergipe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • America de Propria haven't matched Sergipe's recent run of results.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Sergipe taking it.
  • Sergipe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor America de Propria, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe America de Propria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 9 11
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.23 1
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs America de Propria
2:1
Feb 26, 2026 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Sergipe
1:1
Jan 11, 2026 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Sergipe
2:2
Mar 1, 2025 Sergipano
Sergipe vs America de Propria
0:1
Jan 21, 2024 Sergipano
Sergipe vs America de Propria
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Mineiro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.99

America de Propria Compare

Top Goalscorer Danielzinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 86 / 100
America de Propria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe America de Propria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sergipe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Difficult form: America de Propria registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

America de Propria let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS America de Propria
1.63 Goals Scored 0.83
1 Goals Conceded 2.33
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
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America de Propria

(Away)
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2
America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sergipe -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
America de Propria 3
Itabaiana 1
Falcon 0
Confianca 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Sergipe 3
America de Propria 2
Itabaiana 2
Confianca 3
Final
Sergipe 2
Confianca 1
Itabaiana 1
America de Propria 0