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Sergipe vs Atletico Gloriense

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Beto
58' Event
Thierry
71' Event
Marlon Martins

AI Match Summary

Sergipe in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Sergipe
35%
Draws
49%
Atletico Gloriense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atletico Gloriense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Sergipe have won more games recently than Atletico Gloriense.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Atletico Gloriense taking it.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sergipe here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 23%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe Atletico Gloriense
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.21 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Atletico Gloriense
2:1
Jan 13, 2024 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Sergipe
1:4
Feb 22, 2023 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Sergipe
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Thierry
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marlon Martins
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Atletico Gloriense Compare

Top Goalscorer Beto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 24 / 100
Atletico Gloriense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe Atletico Gloriense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Gloriense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Atletico Gloriense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Sergipe remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS Atletico Gloriense
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 33%
50% Over 2.5 17%
38% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
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Atletico Gloriense

(Away)
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)