Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sergipe vs Confianca

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Wilker V.
25'
Pereira Neto J. A.
25'
Sassa

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Sergipe
35%
Draws
32%
Confianca
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Confianca haven't matched Sergipe's recent run of results.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Sergipe taking it.
  • Sergipe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sergipe, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%
Confianca Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe Confianca
Matches Played 31 37
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.23 0.86
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Confianca
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Sergipano
Confianca vs Sergipe
1:1
Jan 31, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Confianca
1:0
Feb 9, 2025 Sergipano
Confianca vs Sergipe
2:1
Apr 13, 2024 Sergipano
Confianca vs Sergipe
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulo Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Confianca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 50 / 100
Confianca 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe Confianca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sergipe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Confianca has conceded goals in 73% of their last 37 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Confianca lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS Confianca
0.83 Goals Scored 0.75
1.33 Goals Conceded 1.13
67% Over 1.5 63%
17% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
Page 1 of 7

Confianca

(Away)
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
22 Aug
Confianca
0 : 1
Anapolis
16 Aug
Confianca
1 : 1
Maringa FC
10 Aug
Paysandu PA
2 : 1
Confianca
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sergipe -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
America de Propria 3
Itabaiana 1
Falcon 0
Confianca 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Sergipe 3
America de Propria 2
Itabaiana 2
Confianca 3
Final
Sergipe 2
Confianca 1
Itabaiana 1
America de Propria 0