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Serpa vs Malveira

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Serpa Logo

Serpa

1 - 0
FT
Malveira Logo

Malveira

Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Araujo E.
86'
Ventosa H.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Serpa in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Serpa
20%
Draws
32%
Malveira
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Serpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Malveira average 1.28 goals a game right now, well clear of Serpa's 1.21.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on Serpa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Serpa Clean Sheet 68%
Malveira Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serpa Malveira
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.21 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.07 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Malveira
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs Serpa
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.54

Malveira Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serpa 50 / 100
Malveira 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serpa Malveira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serpa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serpa's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Malveira conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Malveira registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serpa VS Malveira
1.14 Goals Scored 1.25
1.86 Goals Conceded 1
71% Over 1.5 75%
71% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Serpa

(Home)
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1
Serpa
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
04 Apr
O Elvas CAD
3 : 2
Serpa
22 Mar
Serpa
0 : 3
Juv. Evora
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Malveira

(Away)
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
31 May
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 1
Malveira
23 May
Malveira
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
17 May
Louletano
1 : 1
Malveira
10 May
Malveira
0 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)