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Serra Branca vs Nacional PB Prediction & H2H Stats

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Paraibano
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Match Events

8' Event
Pingo
(Penalty)
22'
Thalison
26'
Negrito

AI Match Summary

The Paraibano game between Serra Branca and Nacional PB finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Serra Branca
35%
Draws
28%
Nacional PB
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Serra Branca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra Branca come out ahead of Nacional PB on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Serra Branca's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional PB Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Branca Nacional PB
Matches Played 37 29
Wins 17 8
Draws 12 11
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.32 1.31
Goals Conceded 1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2026 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Nacional PB
2:2
Feb 13, 2025 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Nacional PB
2:2
Feb 24, 2024 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Nacional PB
1:1
Feb 13, 2023 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Nacional PB
1:1
Jan 4, 2023 Club Friendly
Serra Branca vs Nacional PB
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Branca Compare

Top Goalscorer Dinde
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jadson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nacional PB Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Araujo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Branca 50 / 100
Nacional PB 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Branca Nacional PB

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Branca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra Branca scored in 86% of their last 37 outings.

Nacional PB let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Serra Branca stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra Branca VS Nacional PB
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Branca

(Home)
12 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Serra Branca
04 Jul
Serra Branca
0 : 1
Uberlandia
28 Jun
Juazeirense
0 : 1
Serra Branca
21 Jun
Serra Branca
2 : 0
Juazeirense
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
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Nacional PB

(Away)
22 Feb
Treze PB
1 : 2
Nacional PB
12 Feb
Nacional PB
1 : 1
Sousa
09 Feb
Serra Branca
2 : 2
Nacional PB
05 Feb
Nacional PB
0 : 0
Botafogo PB
01 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
1 : 0
Nacional PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 9 4 4 1 13:7 16
2 Campinense 9 4 3 2 14:9 15
3 Sousa 9 4 3 2 13:8 15
4 Serra Branca 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
5 Nacional PB 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Treze PB 9 4 0 5 11:11 12
7 EC de Patos 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
8 Atletico Cajazeirense 9 3 1 5 6:11 10
9 Confianca PB 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Pombal 9 2 2 5 10:18 8
Promotion - Paraibano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 2027 (Main)