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Serra Macaense vs Barra Mansa

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2024
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Match Events

63'
Conceicao D.
90' Event
Gabriel

AI Match Summary

Barra Mansa in this Carioca B2 2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barra Mansa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Serra Macaense
30%
Draws
18%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Serra Macaense have won more games recently than Barra Mansa.
  • Model gives Serra Macaense a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B2 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense Barra Mansa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.1 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense
1:1
Oct 14, 2024 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Barra Mansa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Macaense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Barra Mansa Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 86 / 100
Barra Mansa 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra Macaense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Barra Mansa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Solid form: Serra Macaense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS Barra Mansa
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
09 Nov
Belford Roxo
2 : 0
Serra Macaense
06 Nov
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
Macae
02 Nov
FC Rio de Janeiro
0 : 2
Serra Macaense
26 Oct
Serra Macaense
1 : 0
Goytacaz
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Barra Mansa

(Away)
31 Aug
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Campos AA
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
19 Jul
Buzios
3 : 0
Barra Mansa
12 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 0
Uni Souza
07 Jul
Uni Souza
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campo Grande 11 8 2 1 23:6 26
2 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 20:5 22
3 Niteroiense 11 6 3 2 19:12 21
4 AA Carapebus 11 6 2 3 23:11 20
5 Serra Macaense 11 4 5 2 10:7 17
6 Zinza 11 4 4 3 13:8 16
7 Barra Mansa 11 4 3 4 12:10 15
8 Uni Souza 11 4 3 4 13:18 15
9 7 de Abril 11 2 4 5 12:13 10
10 FC Rio de Janeiro 11 2 2 7 12:23 8
11 Mageense 11 2 0 9 11:30 6
12 Rio Sao Paulo 11 2 0 9 8:33 6
Promotion - Carioca B2 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2025 (Main)