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Serra Macaense vs FC Rio de Janeiro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
79' Event
85' Event

AI Match Summary

Serra Macaense in this Carioca B2 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serra Macaense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Serra Macaense
15%
Draws
28%
FC Rio de Janeiro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Rio de Janeiro haven't matched Serra Macaense's recent run of results.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Serra Macaense taking it.
  • Regular Carioca B2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Serra Macaense here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 17%
FC Rio de Janeiro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense FC Rio de Janeiro
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 12 6
Draws 10 3
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.29 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.04 2.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs FC Rio de Janeiro
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Serra Macaense
0:2
Oct 21, 2024 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs FC Rio de Janeiro
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 84 / 100
FC Rio de Janeiro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense FC Rio de Janeiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Rio de Janeiro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 26 matches.

Serra Macaense found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Serra Macaense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS FC Rio de Janeiro
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
05 Oct
Serra Macaense
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
01 Oct
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 3
Serra Macaense
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

FC Rio de Janeiro

(Away)
05 Oct
Paraty
0 : 4
FC Rio de Janeiro
01 Oct
FC Rio de Janeiro
2 : 0
Barra Mansa
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Friburguense 7 5 2 0 12:4 17
2 Serra Macaense 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
3 Cardoso Moreira 7 4 1 2 9:5 13
4 Belford Roxo 7 3 3 1 14:6 12
5 Santa Cruz RJ 7 4 0 3 9:8 12
6 Paduano EC 7 3 2 2 9:6 11
7 FC Rio de Janeiro 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
8 7 de Abril 7 3 1 3 10:10 10
9 Campos AA 7 2 3 2 11:11 9
10 Barra Mansa 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
11 Buzios 7 1 0 6 5:18 3
12 Paraty 7 0 0 7 4:21 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)