Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Serra Macaense vs Friburguense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event

AI Match Summary

Friburguense in this Carioca B2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Friburguense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Serra Macaense
20%
Draws
57%
Friburguense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Friburguense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Serra Macaense lately — more wins on the board than Friburguense.
  • Serra Macaense are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Carioca B2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense Friburguense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.18 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Friburguense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 86 / 100
Friburguense 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense Friburguense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra Macaense scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Friburguense conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Serra Macaense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS Friburguense
1 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
07 Sept
7 de Abril
2 : 2
Serra Macaense
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
09 Nov
Belford Roxo
2 : 0
Serra Macaense
Page 1 of 6

Friburguense

(Away)
20 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 0
Campos AA
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cardoso Moreira 4 4 0 0 7:1 12
2 Friburguense 4 3 1 0 7:1 10
3 Santa Cruz RJ 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 7 de Abril 4 2 1 1 7:5 7
5 Paduano EC 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
6 Belford Roxo 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Campos AA 4 1 2 1 6:7 5
8 Serra Macaense 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
9 FC Rio de Janeiro 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 0 3 1 5:8 3
11 Paraty 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
12 Buzios 4 0 0 4 1:12 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)