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Serra vs Capixaba SC

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Patrick
(Penalty)
41'
Dandan
42' Event
Patrick

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Serra and Capixaba SC finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Serra
15%
Draws
73%
Capixaba SC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capixaba SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra come out ahead of Capixaba SC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Serra here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%
Capixaba SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Capixaba SC
Matches Played 34 22
Wins 19 8
Draws 3 3
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.71 0.91
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Capixaba SC
0:0
Jan 25, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Capixaba SC
3:0
Apr 19, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Capixaba SC vs Serra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Patrick
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Capixaba SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 32 / 100
Capixaba SC 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Capixaba SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capixaba SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 82% of their last 34 outings.

Capixaba SC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 22 matches.

Difficult form: Capixaba SC registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.33 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Capixaba SC
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 7

Capixaba SC

(Away)
12 Feb
Capixaba SC
0 : 2
Real Noroeste
08 Feb
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 1
Capixaba SC
04 Feb
Capixaba SC
0 : 2
Rio Branco ES
01 Feb
Vitoria ES
2 : 0
Capixaba SC
29 Jan
Capixaba SC
2 : 1
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria ES 9 6 2 1 14:4 20
2 Serra 9 4 2 3 10:6 14
3 Vilavelhense 9 4 1 4 8:10 13
4 Rio Branco ES 9 3 4 2 10:6 13
5 Porto Vitoria 9 3 4 2 7:5 13
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
7 Real Noroeste 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
8 Forte 9 2 5 2 5:4 11
9 Capixaba SC 9 3 1 5 6:13 10
10 Rio Branco-VN 9 0 5 4 8:15 5
Promotion - Capixaba (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capixaba 2 2027 (Main)