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Serra vs GEL

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2009
Serra Logo

Serra

3 - 2
FT
GEL Logo

GEL

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Serra in this Campeonato Capixaba 2009 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Serra
35%
Draws
56%
GEL
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: GEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • GEL haven't matched Serra's recent run of results.
  • GEL are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Serra have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%
GEL Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra GEL
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 3
Draws 3 7
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.5 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.03 2.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 1.08
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2025 Capixaba 2
GEL vs Serra
1:9
May 2, 2009 Capixaba
GEL vs Serra
2:1
Mar 6, 2009 Capixaba
Serra vs GEL
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 24 / 100
GEL 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra GEL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

GEL has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Serra has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS GEL
1.13 Goals Scored 1.17
1 Goals Conceded 0.83
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

GEL

(Away)
14 Aug
GEL
6 : 0
CTE Colatina
01 Aug
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 0
GEL
28 Jul
GEL
0 : 4
Linhares Futebol Clube
23 Jul
GEL
0 : 0
Doze Futebol Clube
19 Jul
CTE Colatina
1 : 1
GEL
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SAO Mateus 18 11 3 4 28:21 36
2 Rio Branco ES 18 8 7 3 35:21 31
3 Jaguare 18 9 3 6 30:25 30
4 Vilavelhense 18 8 4 6 29:27 28
5 Linhares Futebol Clube 18 8 3 7 18:19 27
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 18 6 4 8 26:24 22
7 Rio Bananal FC 18 6 3 9 22:26 21
8 GEL 18 6 2 10 24:33 20
9 Serra 18 5 4 9 32:39 19
10 Colatinense 18 5 3 10 25:34 18
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2009 (Play Offs)