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Serra vs Vilavelhense

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Sub
Joao Rozario In: Kainandro
Out: Joao Rozario
37'
Rossales
46'
Sub
Guilherme Augusto In: Diogo
Out: Guilherme Augusto

AI Match Summary

Serra in this Capixaba matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Serra
33%
Draws
40%
Vilavelhense
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Serra have won more games recently than Vilavelhense.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Vilavelhense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 3 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Vilavelhense
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:2
Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Serra
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Dandan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vilavelhense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 28 / 100
Vilavelhense 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Vilavelhense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Vilavelhense conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Serra remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Vilavelhense
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rio Branco ES1
Porto Vitoria2
Vitoria ES5
Forte2
Vilavelhense2
Desportiva Ferroviaria2
Serra2
Real Noroeste2
Semi-finals
Porto Vitoria6
Vitoria ES5
Vilavelhense1
Serra3
Final
Porto Vitoria4
Serra3