Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Serra vs Vilavelhense

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra
Serra Logo

Serra

1 - 0
FT
Vilavelhense Logo

Vilavelhense

Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Sub
Joao Rozario In: Kainandro
Out: Joao Rozario
37'
Rossales
46'
Sub
Guilherme Augusto In: Diogo
Out: Guilherme Augusto
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Serra
30%
Draws
62%
Vilavelhense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Serra have won more games recently than Vilavelhense.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
  • Serra have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Vilavelhense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Vilavelhense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 3 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.53 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Vilavelhense
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:2
Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Serra
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Dandan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vilavelhense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 28 / 100
Vilavelhense 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Vilavelhense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vilavelhense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Vilavelhense has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Serra went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Vilavelhense
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 7

Vilavelhense

(Away)
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
06 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
03 Jun
Vilavelhense
1 : 0
Vitoria ES
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rio Branco ES 1
Porto Vitoria 2
Vitoria ES 5
Forte 2
Vilavelhense 2
Desportiva Ferroviaria 2
Serra 2
Real Noroeste 2
Semi-finals
Porto Vitoria 6
Vitoria ES 5
Vilavelhense 1
Serra 3
Final
Porto Vitoria 4
Serra 3