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Serranense vs Tupi-MG

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Gliniedson
52' Event
Juan Rocha
81' Event
Gustavinho

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Mineiro 3 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Serranense
20%
Draws
48%
Tupi-MG
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tupi-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Serranense haven't matched Tupi-MG's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tupi-MG's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Mineiro 3 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Serranense Clean Sheet 20%
Tupi-MG Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serranense Tupi-MG
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 3 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 0.83 0.9
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Mineiro 3
Serranense vs Tupi-MG
2:2
Jul 18, 2021 Mineiro 2
Tupi-MG vs Serranense
1:3
Feb 22, 2020 Mineiro 2
Serranense vs Tupi-MG
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serranense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gliniedson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miller
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Tupi-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Juan Rocha
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gustavinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serranense 28 / 100
Tupi-MG 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serranense Tupi-MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tupi-MG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serranense found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Tupi-MG conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Tupi-MG lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serranense VS Tupi-MG
0.83 Goals Scored 1.13
2.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
67% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Serranense

(Home)
11 Oct
Serranense
0 : 1
Boston City
05 Oct
Coimbra Esporte Clube
6 : 1
Serranense
27 Sept
Serranense
2 : 2
Tupi-MG
20 Sept
Novo Esporte
3 : 0
Serranense
06 Sept
Serranense
0 : 0
Uniao Luziense
Page 1 of 6

Tupi-MG

(Away)
22 Nov
Boa
3 : 1
Tupi-MG
15 Nov
Tupi-MG
1 : 2
Paracatu
08 Nov
Tupi-MG
1 : 0
Essube
02 Nov
Coimbra Esporte Clube
3 : 1
Tupi-MG
25 Oct
Tupi-MG
0 : 3
Novo Esporte
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tupi-MG 6 3 3 0 11:7 12
2 Coimbra Esporte Clube 6 3 2 1 12:6 11
3 Novo Esporte 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
4 Inter de Minas 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
5 Boston City 6 2 1 3 7:11 7
6 Uniao Luziense 6 0 3 3 4:7 3
7 Serranense 6 0 2 4 5:16 2
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2025 (Final Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boa 5 4 1 0 13:1 13
2 Paracatu 5 1 3 1 5:8 6
3 Juventus Minasnovense 5 1 2 2 6:10 5
4 Essube 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
5 Passos 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
6 Nacional Uberaba 5 1 2 2 5:8 5
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2025 (Final Group)